It’s been incredibly interesting to watch supporters of the President try to defend his actions – or lack thereof – in his various swirling scandals these days.  First there was a lot of silence – it took awhile for the damage control talking points to get worked out.  It takes special skill to defend the indefensible, after all.  Some are denying anything is wrong at all, that the IRS was just doing its job, that no one was lying about Benghazi, and that monitoring the AP reporters’ phone calls was vital to national security.  The RGJ’s Corey Farley absurdly argued today that the IRS targeting and harassment is no big deal, because Nixon, McCarthy, and Ted Kennedy (all folks modern Republicans hold in the highest regard, of course) did it, too.  All of these excuses have the same drawback, though – they require the excuse maker to be either stupid or a liar.  But now they seem to have settled on the ultimate defense.

The President didn’t do anything wrong, you see – he’s just incompetent!

~~~

If the goal is to prevent any accountability for criminal wrongdoing, this isn’t a terrible way to go – Actus reus non facit reum nisi mens sit rea, after all.   There is no malfeasance from the White House, because they just didn’t know what was going on as a result of the government being too darn big.  Who could keep this “vast” government under control, anyway?  Obama couldn’t know what was happening in an IRS office in Ohio, or what discussions were taking place between senior members of the State Department and the CIA, or what some Deputy Attorney General was up to.  C’mon – who could keep track of all of that?  It’s not like he can make his senior advisers tell him important things that are going on, and besides – he’s got a lot of golf to play and Sports Center to watch.  Sure, he’s technically responsible, but c’mon, he can’t monitor every one of his employees’ actions – there’s to many of them!

But this is exactly the argument of conservatism.  Our governing philosophy assumes that people with power will inevitably be tempted to abuse that power – that’s just human nature.  Most of them won’t, but some of them always will.  We further assume that people drawn to power (in any party) are disproportionately likely to be this way.  Finally, we assume that even the many good people in government (of both parties) are stupider than we are, particularly about issues we happen to be experts in (what’s best for our families and/or businesses).   The more power government has over our lives, and the more people who have this power, the more often and the more egregiously this power will be abused.  History backs us up on these assumptions pretty solidly.

We therefore fight to structure our institutions such that they have firewalls, checks, balances, and decentralized authority that can be fired at the next election (if not before).  We struggle to keep our government as small as possible, so power-abusers cannot so easily hide.

President Obama has greatly expanded the size and scope of the government, and wishes to make it even bigger and more intrusive.  And it’s not just size – as part of their efforts to “protect” workers, liberals have made it nearly impossible for voters and taxpayers to get rid of members of their government who aren’t doing a good job.  If for no other reason, this makes him and his party responsible for these many scandals.  (With, let’s admit, plenty of assistance from his predecessor.)

Even assuming the best about the President, no one could competently manage a government under these conditions, or prevent “rogue” government enforcers from abusing their tremendous power from time to time.  And that – far more than White House dishonesty – is the real scandal here.  The President really is incompetent, but it’s in no small part because he helped build a structure that no one could competently maintain.  He set himself (and the rest of us) up for failure.

The answer isn’t trading one necessarily incompetent chief executive for another.  Republicans aren’t any better at micro-managing our lives that Democrats.  The answer is to hack apart the impenetrable jungle our government has become so that it CAN be managed, and to keep as many essential functions of government (education, welfare, law enforcement) as local as possible.

~~~

We’ve become so tribal in our politics that I doubt liberals even understand that they’re renouncing their claimed philosophy in their defense of the President.  Even if they do, I understand – it’s tough to admit that the guy you supported, lied for, and defended against all charges both ridiculous and real really IS the fink that his detractors have always claimed him to be.

But Republicans these days are no less prone to blindness by this tribalism.  Yes, President Obama himself should be held accountable for his role – or lack of leadership – in these scandals.  But Liberalism itself is the ultimate target.  If we insist on making this personal, we lose the bigger picture.  If we want better government instead of just beating up on a President we don’t like because he’s on the other team, it’s important to keep this in mind.  Short of video showing Obama actually ordering the IRS to harass conservative groups, the “I word” should be wiped from our collective minds with extreme prejudice.  And we need to remember that not all “scandals” are the same – if you can generate the same level of outrage over a Marine holding an umbrella for the Commander-in-Chief that you can for the IRS systematically and illegally harassing the boss’ political opponents, then don’t be surprised when nobody takes you seriously.

Besides – the President is effectively neutered at this point.  No one believes him.  No one trusts him.  He’s the butt of late night jokes.  An over aggressive witch hunt only empowers him by amplifying all of our natural tribal tendencies, including those of his supporters.  In the long run, it’s not the President who matters, but his philosophical take on governance and the inevitable failures as he tries to put that philosophy into practice.

~~~

There are lessons for all levels of government here, too.  Every new tax, every new government database, every new regulation, every new criminal sanction – every one of them can be abused (or just mishandled by incompetents), and at some point, almost certainly will be.  We should – and must – assume that it will be, and every time someone tries to say that’s ridiculous paranoia, the Obama IRS scandal should be invoked.  Such consideration should be part of the cost/benefit analysis of every proposed governmental action, along with serious discussion on how to prevent or limit such malfeasance, along with serious and enforceable punishments when it occurs.  This should be done without rancor, and without assuming that the abuse of power is the secret “real” goal of the person proposing more government powers.  But it should be done nonetheless.

~~~

Of course, the President can be both incompetent and a liar (there is simply no other word for what’s going on at this point).  He is undeniably responsible for all of this, whether he actually picked up a phone and ordered it or not.  We now know that senior level cabinet officials knew both that the Benghazi talking points were bogus and that the IRS had been illegally harassing conservative groups, which means that Obama either knew or had to go out of his way to avoid knowing, which is another way of saying he really did know.  Disparate treatment of groups based on their ideology isn’t limited to the IRS, making the President’s lack of awareness even less plausible.  And Eric Holder’s claims of “recusal” in the AP phone records case is ridiculous – a rural state DA doesn’t recuse himself from a misdemeanor without a huge paper trail, and yet there was no record made for a major “leak investigation” involving the White House and the actual Attorney General of the United States?  Puh-LEEEZ.

The common thread of all these scandals is rank and habitual dishonesty, coupled with such contempt for Americans that they assume we’d believe it.  I don’t think there was some huge centrally orchestrated conspiracy, but neither do I believe that the President didn’t at least knowingly ignore bad and/or criminal behavior which benefited him personally.  Quite frankly, you yourself have to be either stupid or lying to believe otherwise at this point.

If the goal is merely to beat up on Obama, those are the drums to beat.  But that’s not the ultimate goal, or at least it shouldn’t be.  The goal is to promote, defend, and maximize individual liberty.  To do THAT, we shouldn’t scoff at Obama’s defenders, but rather embrace  – and make them own the obvious consequences of – their defenses.

Sweet Sixteen

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (5) Oklahoma State Cowboys

There are times when not giving a crap any more can be what you need for a final badass push.  But not when it comes to being consumed by the flaming torch of avian-borne freedom.

The (11) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over the (2) Duke Blue Devils

In this battle of supernatural badassity, it’s helpful to look way into the past.  Specifically, Pegasus helped defeat this thing:

According to Homer, it breathed fire. No mention of the empty, soulless eyes, although that’s a disturbingly reoccurring theme in this year’s tournament.

If it can cut the a head off of a Chimera, it would make short work of Duke’s pencil-chinned Hades dweller.

The (8) Pittsburgh Panthers over the (13) Boise State Broncos

Both of these mascots have terrifying, pupil-less eyes – how you tremble when you look into the window of the soul and see nothing there!  But Pitt’s panther has a couple of things the Bronco lacks, most of which are fangs.  And as intense as the Bronco looks, there is nothing of the raw, badass-multiplying rage that radiates like a nuclear blast from the head of that cat.

The (11) Belmont Bruins over the (10) Iowa State Cyclones

Here’s where logo design made all the difference.  AN image of a huge, black, angry F-5 tornado bearing down on a farmstead would be one thing, but ISU’s definitely isn’t that.  One of the biggest problems with that cardinal on top is that it makes the storm look small as a matter of scale.

What the Belmont Bruin really has going for it, though, it a whole mess o’ crazy.  It literally looks insane – it’s eyes aren’t really focused, but it looks irrationally enraged.  There’s no Teddy in this bear.  Bears are big and strong under almost any circumstances, but this one looks like it will just keep rampaging forever, and with extreme prejudice.  And unlike a cyclone, it will lift up the cellar door to follow you underground…

The (13) Montana Grizzlies over the (8) North Carolina State Wolfpack

It’s time once again to see what Nature has to tell us about all of this:

In case you couldn’t watch it, that’s a 14 wolf pack scattering like mice after the grizzly just decides he wants the animal they just did all the work of killing.  Your badassity hits a ceiling at the point you’re unable or unwilling to defend yourself.

The (2) Miami Hurricanes over the (11) Bucknell Bison

The same logic from the last round is evident here, even if the logo design is better.  Besides, that whole story about the ibis is very cool – it’s not like they use a duck or something lame like that.

Wait – WHAT?!?

You’re killing me, Miami.  You’re in the big leagues now – a 2 seed!  Scrape some cash together and stay away from the used costume shop.

If their official name wasn’t still “The Hurricanes”, their lame wrong-costume would have cost them much earlier.

I guess when you can routinely trash an entire nation’s eastern seaboard, you can get away with a stray duck or two, even when facing 2 tons of raging prairie horn’d beast.

The (4) Michigan Wolverines over the (8) North Carolina Tarheels

Here’s a little more wolverine video, just in case there’s any doubt about its badassity:

That video actually talks about how it can out-climb a mountain goat.  Apparently they’re also known to hunt and kill moose, which is a larger animal with larger horns than that Tarheel goat – there’s simply no competing here.

The (7) San Diego State Aztecs over the (3) Florida Gators

According to Aztec mythology, before the earth as we knew it existed there was Cipactli, a crocodilian creature roaming existance looking for a good meal.  Gods Tezcatlipoca and Quetzalcoatl didn’t dig that state of affairs, and so, using Tezcatlipoca’s own foot as bait, they killed the beast, made the earth out of it, and then populated it with their people.  (Alligator priests could not be reached for their own version of events, so I gotta go with what we’ve got.)

The one living in the other’s dead body is clearly the superior badass.

The Elite Eight

The (16) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over the (16) Liberty Flames

This is actually a pretty straight forward comparison – both of these mascots are unique, airborne, and make use of energy as weaponry.  But having the power to brandish and wield Zues’ lighting gives Middle Tennessee the edge here.

The (11) Belmont Bruins over the (8) Pittsburgh Panthers

Who wins when you throw to rage-filled, insane, semi-rabid beasts on a court and watch them duke it out?  It’s hard to predict crazy, but here I have to give it to Belmont just due to sheer mass.

The (2) Miami Hurricanes over the (13) Montana Grizzlies

The same arguments for the Hurricanes defeating various bison mascots holds for them here.

Pictured: A hurricane and a bear to scale.

The (7) San Diego State Aztecs over the (4) Michigan Wolverines

Bloodlust, strength, and a healthy dose of total insanity define both of these indisputably badass mascots, but as a civilization, the Aztecs take it to another level.  For example, a wolverine may tear your face off, but the pantheon the Aztecs came up with will tear off a piece of your soul just by trying to process what you’re looking at.

Seriously – what IS all this? All I know it’s that it’s badass enough to scare me away…

The Final Four

The (11) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over the (11) Belmont Bruins

If you were a wildlife ranger dealing with an insane rabid bead that was mawing its way through campers and cabins all over the wilderness, I bet you’d love to fly above it with a self-aware vehicle that can land in a tight spot, manuever on the ground, and bring down bolts of lighting to any wayward beasts below.  That’s how Pegasus killed that Chimera, and that thing breathed fire.  ‘Nuff said here.

The (7) San Diego State Aztecs over the (2) Miami Hurricanes

Just based on the placement of the Aztec civilization on the map, they must have had many run-ins with hurricanes over the years.  And clearly they did some damage, because the god which could be described as the Aztec Satan, Tezcatlipoca, is associated with the storms, and he used them to turn people into monkeys and bring about the end of the world from time to time.  That depiction of an Aztec god up above?  That’s Tezcatlipoca.

This is where that Ibis finally trips Miami up.  Depictions of things matter, which is kind of the point of the mascot in the first place.  Had Miami embraced the whole Bringer of Destruction and arch rival to Quetzalcoatl thing, then they’d probably win it all.  But instead they went with a sea bird, which simply cannot rival the badassity of a civilization that brought us things like this:

The Championship Game

The (7) San Diego State Aztecs over the (11) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Pegasus was an amazing beast and supernatural weapon of war.  But the sheer size and scope of the badass-drenched Aztec empire, and the violence used to maintain it, brings the prize home to their pyramids.  What other empire refused to conquer its neighbors fully, just so they could keep fighting them and sacrificing/eating their POWs?  That may be evil, but boy it’s commitment.

So congrats to this year’s Badassiest Mascot.  They’ll be awfully tough to beat next year, unless some school decides to ditch something lame like, say, a Gopher, and go with a mascot with a proven history of subjugating even the scariest and most violent of civilizations…

There’s a whole, untapped world of potential mascot badassity out there, people.

Midwest

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (9) Missouri Tigers

My cat used to be extraordinarily obese (yay for the miracle of modern robots who will carefully regulate her diet without her being able to blame me!).  When we’d try to get her to exercise, she’s open her mouth and bare her teeth, but there was no real vigor in it, and certainly precious little badassity.

“Seriously, you guys. Bring that thing a little closer. Bring it… Ah, to hell with exercise, anyway. It’s not like I’ll ever have to fight a flaming eagle or anything.”

Missouri’s mascot is in better shape, but that image and look on its face always reminds me of that chubby, apartment-bound kitty.  It’s certainly no match for the burning desire for freedom represented by Liberty’s burning bird.

The (5) Oklahoma State Cowboys over the (4) St. Louis Billikins

There is a definite type of badassity that comes from having seen so many horrors in your life, that you’re immune from the impact of any new ones.  The Oklahoma State cowboy looks like his soul burned out long ago, making him immune from the Billikin’s only real weapon – freaking everyone the hell out.

The (11) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over the (3) Michigan State Spartans

I haven’t yet touched on Middle Tennesee’s actual nickname – the “Blue Raiders.”  It’s a story of “It could have been much, much worse.”

In the early days of athletics at Middle Tennessee State University, the teams were known by several nicknames. Among these were Teachers, Normalites, and Pedagogues.  In 1934, it was decided that the school needed a specific nickname.

During football season that year, the Murfreesboro Daily News Journal held a contest to name the team.  The late Charles Sarver, then a Middle Tennessee football player and later principal at White County High School in Sparta, Tenn., won the $5 prize for his entry of “Blue Raiders.”

The Pedagogues?  The Normalites?!?!  Eesh.  Good on them for taking a step forward.  They then rejected a “costumed, cartoonlike dog” described as a “reasonable facsimile of a bluetick hound” after awhile – as well they should.  The nice thing about a name that doesn’t really mean much is that the world of potential mascots is your oyster.  Go big!  And they did.

The badassity of the Spartans needs little embellishment, but by choosing an old school Pegasus (not some cartoonish My Little Pony crap or something) to represent them, Middle Tennessee has what it takes to defeat them.  Spartans may have been unparallelled as infantry troops, but against a supernatural airborne mounted cavalry that had ranged electrical weapons at its disposal?

The (2) Duke Blue Devils over the (10) Cincinnati Bearcats

You’d think combining a bear and a cat would really amplify the badassity of a mascot.  In this case, though, Cincinnati somehow achieved the opposite – I believe they call that “destructive interference” in hydrodynamics.  You could at least give him some pointy teeth or something.

West

The (8) Pittsburgh Panthers over the (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Dog beats cat is the baseline assumption, but that’s only a start.  Here, that snarling, fanged demon cat is too much even for the most badass bulldog in the tourney.  There’s a lot of soul-haunting going on this year.

The (13) Boise State Broncos over the (5) Wisconsin Badgers

Polyester clad petulance in a ground dweller just can’t overcome the raging charge of this crazy-eyed bronco.

The (11) Belmont Bruins over the (3) New Mexico Lobos

Here at First Principles, we don’t limit our opinions to just looking at mascots and logos.  We have an extensive field research division.  Fortunately, bears and wolves meet up from time to time in the wild, and so we don’t have to speculate – let’s let Nature teach us about badassity!

One bear, lots o’ wolves.  Look at ‘em scatter.

The (10) Iowa State Cyclones over the (15) Iona Gaels

The are some great opportunity for puns here, but everyone knows they’re the lowest form of humor, so we’ll just go with the linguistic origin of Iona’s nickname again.  The power to wipe entire farming towns off the map is vastly superior to the power to speak Gaelic and wave a wooden cane around.  Not even the lame inclusion of that bird can save Iona here.

East

The (8) North Carolina State Wolfpack over the (16) LIU (Brooklyn) Blackbirds

Blackbirds are smart, but so is a wolfpack.  The most LIU could hope to do would be to scavenge off the kill of the Pack after they were done with it, bringing this little avian’s Cinderella story to an end.

The (13) Montana Grizzlies over the (5) UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

In the last round, UNLV beat another bear, but only just.  In this case, we see how logo design can make a difference the other way.  Grizzlies are nature’s largest and most fearsome bear, and Montana chose to use every bit of that natural badassity to its full advantage.  There’s nothing old or tired about this guy, and that mustache will wind up being served with some salmon sashimi before the day is done…

The (11) Bucknell Bison over the (14) Davidson Wildcats

There’s no actual dispute about this at this point, right?  Sometimes badassitae ipsa loquitur.

The (2) Miami Hurricanes over the (10) Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado’s Buffalo is badass because it’s a buffalo, but this logo design could use some sprucing up.  But it’s still in significant contention, especially with that Ibis Miami is using to represent its nominally badass nickname.  I feel like a good way to look at this is to compare the relative damage each one could bring down upon a swath of land.

Let’s see – definitely a few bent blades of grass…

Also a few blades of… Oh, no, those used to be houses.

It’s hard to out-badass the fury of the entire atmosphere.

South

The (8) North Carolina Tarheels over the (1) Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas was more than lucky to get this far, but it was only a matter of time before a reasonably competent mascot came and ended this goofy bird’s tournament.

The (4) Michigan Wolverines over the (12) Akron Zips

A too-little appreciate method of determining badassity is the battle against true evil, like Nazism or Communism.  So let’s just take a look at their respective records on that…

Wolverines, baby.  Shockingly, I could find no example of where Kangaroos – with or without an uncomfortably-close-to-racist-sounding name – had similar success, even as a mere nickname/mascot.  Can you imagine a group of freedom fighters yelling, “KANGAROOS!!!!”?  Or worse, “ZIIIIIIPS!!!!”?

The (3) Florida Gators over the (6) UCLA Bruins

Part of the badassity of a bear is it’s growling, snarly power.  It loses all that when it gets all cute and cuddly.  Especially, as it was pointed out in the second round by a reader, when it sits around LA and goes all Hollywood on us.  The minute you let yourself get all soft, you lose the Badass Edge.

The (7) San Diego State University Aztecs over the (2) Georgetown Hoyas

Even without all the empire building and human sacrifice, the Aztecs win this on headgear alone.

~~~

Later tonight, tune in to see the Badassiest of them all revealed!

Click on this picture for hilarious real mascot fights.

“Badassity” is a function of many things – “Who Would Win In a Fight” is a major determiner, but that alone isn’t always enough.  Mascots lose points for lack of originality (I’m talking to you, 8 Million Wildcat Teams).  History of the team nickname matters, as well as how it’s used today.  Logo design can be key – what do do when you have multiple Bulldogs?  Acknowledging Badassity doesn’t necessarily constitute endorsement – the Forces of Darkness tend to do well in this bracket.  And I try to look to the past when in doubt in close contests, following the rule of stare decisis when possible.  You can check out 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012 just for reference (2010 was purged from the record books after an NCAA rules violations investigation that I’m contractually prohibited from discussing).  And of course, the results are totally and completely guaranteed*!

*If you believe this, please join my pool.

So, defend your own school’s mascot if you can, and let’s get on with the Dance!

The First Four – Play-In Round

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (16) North Carolina A&T Aggies

This first matchup is an odd combination of overused mascots tossed together in a stew of medium grade Badassity, but with some real hidden potential in each.  Aggies, of course, refers to the “Agricultural” mission of their school, and while I love farmers almost as much as Paul Harvey, there’s a limit to how badass they are in a combat role.  NC A&T isn’t the first to try to augment this by making their Aggie a tough looking animal, but they lost a lot of points when they went with the OH-so-generic Bulldog.

Birds of prey are also way overused, but I’m intrigued by the fact that this one appears to be in frickin’ fire.  And let’s be honest here – this is a right wing blog, and we love the idea of Liberty and America delivered to you like a meteor reminding those Ruskies who’s still in charge.  The yellow dog clearly lifts a lot of weights, but can’t compete in badassity with the burning torch of freedom.

The (11) Middle Tennessee Raiders over the (11) St. Mary’s Gaels

When you have to ask, “Soooooo…. Just what IS your mascot, anyway?”, then you probably aren’t looking good in the Badassiest Bracket.  Sic Semper St. Mary’s, the poor souls.

You have to give them credit for safety, though – if the guy in that costume falls or bumps into something, his air bags come pre-deployed…

But, we strive to do our research here, and a “Gael” is simply one who speaks some kind of Gaelic tongue.  If St. Mary’s would have been smart, they would have gotten all Braveheart with this concept, but instead they tried to go another direction in that time period and did this.  That’s right.  It’s an inflatable knight in inflatable armor or something, holding its belly like it just ate something it shouldn’t.

Now compare that to an angry Pegasus shooting lighting out of its nose, and you either fell asleep watching My Little Pony while drinking something you shouldn’t have, or you’re up against a very badass mascot.    Sorry St. Mary’s, but this is definitely not your year.

The (16) Long Island University (Brooklyn) Blackbirds over the (16) James Madison Dukes

I like the Blackbird – they’re insanely smart animals (tool using, even), and it’s far more creative than the ubiquitous birds of prey that every other school seems to default into.  They’re small, but clever and with a hint of the Underworld to them.  They definitely punch above their badass weight.

There are always a lot of Bulldogs in this tournament, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen one where so many of them are sneaking in under other names.

This one, though, might be the most ridiculous.  I was hoping that there was a better story behind this, but James Madison calls themselves the “Dukes” after their second president who himself just happened to have the name instead of earning it with money, royal blood, or some other feat of badassity.  They picked the dog in the 70s – the decadal font of All Bad Things.  And then in the 80s they dressed him up like some weird proto rap star, but in a way that would make Huggy Bear blush.  The total package winds up just being absurd.  It’s a shame, too – I expect better from a school named after a founding father.

But if you still have any lingering doubt, check out this video of the “Duke Dog” starting a fight he couldn’t finish.  With a chicken.

The (13) Boise State Broncos over the (13) LaSalle University Explorers

I originally had this one going the other way.  A charging Bronco is definitely Badass – I’m wary enough of them when they’re just tromping around my neighborhood and jumping in front of my car in the dark – but imagine him bearing down on you, staring you down without any pupils!  Still, the idea of an intrepid explorer in the wilds of the New World Lewis/Clark style like Sieur de La Salle was intriguing to me.

Too bad that isn’t even the guy the University is named after.  That would be Jean Baptiste de La Salle, educator to the needy.  Now I’m not saying educating the impoverished isn’t a noble goal, but it’s hard to call it “badass” exactly.

But some sports writer make a mistake back in the day, and the school just rolled along with it, desperately hoping for some cred in a time when the badassity of their mascot could make all the difference.  It’s all based on a lie, and that cannot be rewarded.

But enough play-ins – let’s see that full dance floor!

Midwest

The (16) Liberty Flames over the (1) Louisville Cardinals

It’s always nice when you get a nice apples-to-apples comparison.  Two birds.  Both red.  Now, one is a songbird, and the other a symbol of strength and freedom worldwide.  One has teeth (?!?), and the other has a hooked beak designed to rip flesh.  One has a little scowl, the other is burning with hate for Commies.  One is red because of its feathers, the other is red because its plumage is made of flames.

Hey, what can you say?  Just because you’re the overall 1 Seed doesn’t mean you can forget to pay attention the essentials.

The (9) Missouri Tigers over the (8) Colorado State Rams

Let’s be honest – neither of these guys looks particularly fired up.  It’s like the Battle of the Meh.  Both of them should be far more badass than they present here, but they’re kind of phoning it in.  As a Nevadan, I wish I could see something that resembles a bighorn sheep – pretty badass as far as ungulates go – and give them a pass against the tired and generic tiger.  Alas, as cool as those horns could be, the weight, claws, teeth, and cunning of this largest of cats is a recipe for mutton stew at the end of this game.

The (5) Oklahoma State Cowboys over the (12) Oregon Ducks

You have to give Oregon some credit – in the past, they’ve done some cool stuff to try to amp up the badassity of their sad little water fowl.  I loved the tire tracks Pacific Northwest Native tribe stylization of the duck wings on their football uniforms.  But in the end, there’s just too much money coming from Disney.  Donald himself can’t even outbadass a mouse with a rather off-putting falsetto, and he doesn’t stand a chance against this crusty cowboy, for all the tantrum skills he brings.

I have to love this cowboy, too, especially next to Donald in full rage mode.  It reminds me of that scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark when Indy just shoots the crazy dude with the sword.

The (4) St. Louis Billikins over the (13) New Mexico State Aggies

Here’s another Agricultural student, but at least this one brought a gun, and has a sweet mustache.  I guess everyone back then grew a few crops on the side, so you could make him do pretty much whatever you wanted.  It’s a safe choice, but a solid one.  It should be able to handle…  OH MY GOD WHAT IS THAT THING WINKING AT MY SOUL!?!?!?!?

The Billikins made it to the Tournament last year, and I was perhaps too quick to dismiss them.  Or maybe that shapeless horror just took awhile to associate itself with the hellscapes of my nightmares.  Here’s how it started:

A national magazine for college-bound students recently tapped it as one of the “coolest” campus mascots in the country. But just what is a Billiken anyway? [...]

It’s also known that the Billiken was manufactured in the early 1900s as a bank and statuette and was the national rage for about six months — kind of that period’s pet rock. During this time, the Billiken was turned into all sorts of things: dolls, marshmallow candies, metal banks, hatpins, pickle forks, belt buckles, auto hood ornaments, salt and pepper shakers and glass bottles.

Sure, that sounds harmless, if a bit insane.  But now?  <shudder>  I feel like that Aggie’s bullets will just be absorbed, winked to death in some alternate dimension where all hope and joy have been banished from my heart.  But hey – there’s an alternate Aggie logo with a lasso, which is more creatively badass than just a gun.  And maybe that creepy winking picture is just a boogie man trying to cover up a run-of-the-mill costume.  Let’s try it again:

GAHHHH!!! WHAT IS IT POINTING AT?!?! THE ROPE DOES NOTHING! MY EYES ARE ON FIRE! AIEEEEEEEEE!

The (11) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders over the (6) Memphis Tigers

Hey look!  Another tiger superimposed over another “M”!  How original and totally badass!  It can TOTALLY compete with a winged horse who started life by flying out of his mother Medusa’s severed head!

Yes – that’s Middle Tennessee’s mascot leaping free from the freshly severed neck of a Gorgon. And some other messed up stuff. There can be a price to pay for too much badassity, like sanity.

The (3) Michigan State Spartans over the (14) Valpraiso Crusaders

These would seem pretty evenly matched, right down to the plume on their helmets.  But it’s hard to pin down just who should represent the Crusaders in historical context.  Volunteers from all over medieval Europe?  The Knights Templar?  Sean Connery and Harrison Ford?

Pound for pound, it’s hard to match the concentrated badassity of a city-state whose entire culture revolved around them making war.  And their historical record against Middle Eastern armies is far superior.  This is a pretty easy call once you look under their respective helmets.

The (10) Cincinnati Bearcats over the (7) Creighton Bluejays

Seriously, Creighton?  Seriously?

Not even the porn ‘stache on this weird hybrid reject from Dr. Moreau can bring Cincinnati down to THIS level.  The Blue Jay is weak even for a weak songbird – at least Louisville’s cardinal bothered to bare his teeth.

The (2) Duke Blue Devils over the (15) Albany Great Danes

You have to feel for Albany here – Satan practically invented badassity.  But they didn’t do themselves any favors with this particular mascot – why does he look like he’s wearing a hood and welding goggles?  It’s too bad, too, because any dog you could saddle up for a hobbit has some serious badass potential.  Instead, though, it seems they went with the cartoon canine who showed up to his audition too coked up to get the part in Scooby-Doo.

West

The (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs over the (16) Southern University Jaguars

There are way too many bulldogs in this tournament every year, greatly lessening the badassity factor for all of them.  But you have to give the Zags credit for having the best one, and I swear I’m not just saying that because The Wife went there and I have to.  It’s full of attacky rage, it doesn’t wear a stupid hat, it’s not a weird color, and they avoided the temptation of having a tongue lolling out of its head.  It looks mean, dangerous, and focused.

This cat, on the other hand…  I can’t tell if it’s laughing or scared or just what – thoroughly unimpressive.

The (8) Pittsburgh Panthers over the (9) Wichita State Shockers

This one breaks my heart a little.  The Shockers originally got their name because farmers would cut wheat and bundle it into “shocks”.  If we lived in more innocent times, there wouldn’t even be a discussion here.  But we don’t, and the chutzpah that it takes to embrace and own the obscene gesture your school’s nickname has become is commendable.

This is a screen grab from their official website. The one parents look at before deciding who to write a tuition check to.

But as plucky as that all is, they’re facing an opponent who also decided to up the badassity of an otherwise relatively weak mascot.  Look at that thing – it’s terrifying.  It looks like 300 pounds of pure muscle, unburdened by compassion or a soul, ready to tear through anything in its path or die trying.

The (5) Wisconsin Badgers over the (12) Ole Miss Rebels

As a Minnesota alum, I’m contractually obligated to despise seeing Wisconsin win anything anywhere.  I have to admit, they have some serious pound for pound badassity potential.  Badgers are tough, ornery little critters (made more badass in popular culture by their association with YouTube sensation Honey Badger), but then they put that lame sweater on him, overplay said YouTube clip, and force him to be from Wisconsin, taking it way back down the Ladder of Badassity.

Fortunately for the cheeseheads, he’s up against the lamest looking bear to ever cheer on a sports team.  This bear looks like a dorky tourist dad that would make Clark Griswold shake his head in judgment and shame.

Ole Miss’ mascot is pretty new.  It used to be this guy, Colonel Reb, until they finally decided celebrating a guy who for in favor of slavery probably ought to be toned down a bit.  There was a campus-wide campaign and vote to select a replacement, and here’s where Ole Miss really dropped the ball.  Apparently there was a big push to take the “Rebel” name in a completely new direction, and name him after Star Wars Rebel Alliance hero Admiral Ackbar.

We can’t repel Badassity of that magnitude!

Alas, they went with the least offensive thing they could find, throwing all badassity out with the “peculiar” bathwater, leaving the Badgers to win by default.

The (13) Boise State Broncos over the (4) Kansas State Wildcats

Wildcat mascots are lame and boring, and Kansas State found a way to hit the bottom and keep digging with that boring logo.  There’s simply no contest here.

The (11) Belmont Bruins over the (6) Arizona Wilcats

Wildcats…  How utterly original!

In the ordinary course, pretty much any bear would beat pretty much any small cat, wild or otherwise.  But this matchup is particularly lopsided with the Belmont Bruin bringing an extra bear-sized helping of Crazy Eyes.

The (3) New Mexico Lobos over the (14) Harvard Crimson

You’d think people as smart as Harvard grads are expected to be would understand that a color alone is virtually incapable of being badass.  How do you represent it?  It just… is.  If any color could be badass, it would be some shade of red – the color of blood, demon eyes, fire, and the Republican Party.  But sitting all by itself without further context just does nothing.  Wolves are pretty badass on their own, but even a lowly Gopher could beat a mere color.

But hey – wait!  I understand Harvard has an on-field mascot they use to supplement their otherwise formless nickname!

Oh, Harvard.  Stop.  Just stop.

The (10) Iowa State Cyclones over the (7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame is pretty middle of the road when it comes to badassity.  On the one hand, you have to love a torqued off leprechaun wanting to just fight everything it sees.  On the other hand, he’s probably suffering from Napoleon Complex, and that’s just sad. And then, of course, there’s their indifference to negative racial/cultural stereotypes, which could be a plus or minus depending on how important it is to you to stick it to The PC Man.  It’s a safe, conservative choice, albeit with a little baggage.

Iowa State, though, is a study in contrasts.  On the one hand, you have one of the most fearsome, unpredictable, and destructive forces of nature on the surface of our planet.  And then sitting on top you have a… songbird?

Well, at least it looks like he’s been hitting the gym.

Still, in this case I must defer to their actual name, and give it to the killer weather.  Coming from a land of soggy, dreary weather, that angry little Irishman just won’t know what hit him when he finds weather getting its badass on.

The (15) Iona Gaels over the (2) Ohio State Buckeyes

In this battle of the, “What the hell is your Mascot?” teams, Iona is the obvious winner.  There may be no weaker, lamer, less badass mascot than Nut Head over there.  Anyone or anything can beat it easily – even a weird red leprechaun with the wrong color suit and suffering from jaundice.  At least he’s got a stick to swing around at his opponents, tree nuts and otherwise.

East

The (16) LIU (Brooklyn) Blackbirds over the (1) Indiana Hoosiers

Blackbirds are creative, smart, and punch above their basass weight, but ordinarily they’d still be pretty vulnerable.  But Indiana just has… nothing.  Nada.  Zilch.  No one even knows what “Hoosier” actually means or where the word comes from, and the best consensus out there is that it’s a midwestern version of a redneck bumpkin.

Indiana really ought to change – plenty of teams have done it (although they’ve usually gone backwards).  Until they do, they’re going to keep losing, and there’s only one thing that can save them in the future!

I bring you… The Indiana Hackmans. They’d win the whole thing every year!

The (8) North Carolina State Wolfpack over the (9) Temple Owls

Sitting as I do here in Reno, there’s something awfully familiar about that nickname generally and that mascot in particular.  There’s nothing badass about thievery of intellectual property, NC State!  There’s…

Oh.  Never mind.

Owls are under appreciated in their badassity as far as birds of prey go.  But an entire pack of wolves is far more intimidating and effective as a combat unit than a single bird no matter how badass (they really gave up a lot when they quit being dinosaurs), and the “pack” denotes a level of sophistication and coordination beyond the regular animal nickname.

The (5) UNLV Runnin’ Rebels over the (12) California Golden Bears

This is a very, very close call – one where logo design makes all the difference.

I’ve lived all over this country, and have circled the globe a couple of times.  But per capita, there is nowhere else but the state of Nevada where they grow mustaches as badass as the ones they grow here.  UNLV’s mascot is well designed, and that mustache alone is a Badass multiplier of the highest order.

But can that facial hair and the also undeniably badass chin underneath it out-badass a bear?  It probably wouldn’t win in a fight – not without it’s favorite sidekick Tom Selleck – but again, that’s not the end of the analysis.  In this case, Cal’s bear just looks tired, old, and not particularly fearsome.  UNLV takes this one by a whisker.

The (13) Montana Grizzlies over the (4) Syracuse Orange

Now here’s how you do a bear.  But even Cal’s would make short work out of this chew toy.

The (11) Bucknell Bison over the (6) Butler Bulldogs

There are a fair number of teams represented by North American bison, and for good reason.  Growing up in South Dakota, we’d laugh at the tourists every year who thought they were just big dumb tame slow cows, and would then add to the local economy via out health care delivery sector.

This poster was posted all over in the Black Hills, and it says it all.  Plus, that little image never fails to make me chuckle.

In this matchup, I can only imagine a dog barking away right up until it finds itself flying in an arc a few feet above the bison’s head.  And the Butler logo even already comes pre-shell shocked!

The (14) Davidson Wildcats over the (3) Marquette Golden Eagles

This is the ultimate race to the bottom of Generic Gorge – there’s really not much redeeming about either of these.  But when all else fails, cartoon hierarchy rules apply – dogs eat cats, cats eat birds and rodents.

The (10) Colorado Buffaloes over the (7) Illinois Fighting Illini

I’ve already hit on the badassity of Bison/Buffalo, but this still would have been a hard one ten years ago.  There’s a lot of history between native peoples of North America and this great prairie beast.  But this logo is officially out of date – Illinois doesn’t even have a mascot right now, and that makes this an easy win for Colorado.

Illinois is choosing a new mascot, though, and some of the student proposals are just awesome.  I love the Lincoln with the axe or the WWII soldier about to bayonet an enemy, but the real standout is obviously this:

You know you want to do it, Illinois.

The (2) Miami Hurricanes over the (15) Pacific Tigers

What is it with small birds coupled with Nature at her windiest and deadliest?  I suppose you have to cut Miami a little slack – it’s hard to dance around in a wind suit, although they could at least try.  But Sebastian the Ibis is at least unique, and was chosen for its badass last-out-first-back-in attitude when taking shelter form the storm.  More on this later, but for now it’s an easy win against the oh-so-generic Tiger.

South

The (1) Kansas Jayhawks over the (16) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

It’s hard to imagine a mascot that couldn’t wipe the floor with the decidedly not badass Jayhawk, but fortunately for Kansas, Western Kentucky is up for the challenge.  It’s hard to know what’s dumber, that red blob they have waving towels around, or the nickname itself.  “Hilltopper” comes not from the fact that a bunch of mountaineering hillbillies charged and took a hill in the face of enemy forces or something, but merely that they built the college on top of a hill.  Seriously.  It’s not even a big hill – it’s only 232 feet high!

The (8) North Carolina Tarheels over the (9) Villanova Wildcats

This matchup has precedent from last year, when North Carolina defeated the Vermont Catamounts.  “Wildcat” is even duller, so this one is an easy call.

Independent of that, I have a lot of respect for people who take epithets, dip them in badassity, and then wrap themselves up in it as a way to stick it to their tormentors.  Such is the history of “Tarheels”.  And the ram they use along with it understands (in ways that teams like VCU do not) that extra curls in the horns equals extra badassity.

The (12) Akron Zips over the (5) VCU Rams

This was a very, very close call.  Both of these animals are badass beyond expectations, but only one has a history of challenging humans to actual fistfights and then destroying the humans.  They’re also amazingly fast.  Watch the video at the link – it speaks for itself.

A ram might be bigger and stronger, but a kangaroo is faster.  It would run circles around those horns, wear ‘im out, and then kick the crap out of the sheep.  This one is close, but Akron wins it.  Now if they can just do something about the fact that the “Zips” nickname sounds just a bit too uncomfortably close to a racial slur…

The (4) Michigan Wolverines over the (13) South Dakota State Jackrabbits

As a native South Dakotan, I love that the real SDSU is once again in the big dance.  But pound for pound, there may not be a more badass mammal than a wolverine.  The poor widdwe bunny just can’t compete with the claws and the snarling and the rage and the killing.

The (6) UCLA Bruins over the (11) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Every year my own Minnesota struggles to make the tournament, and every year they get trounced in the first round because they’re a ground rodent.  Sigh.  Other weak mascoted teams get to play even weaker foes in the first round!  Where’s our “Orange”?  Where are our Hilltoppers?  Where are our Blue Jays?

At least we’ll always have Carl.

The (3) Florida Gators over the (14) Northwestern State Demons

Ordinarily the forces of Darkness do well in this bracket – say what you want, but the Devil comes ready to play.  But Alligators are primordially badass – they outlasted dinosaurs, continental drift, and frickin’ 6 mile across space rocks hurtling from the deepest reaches of space with mass extinction on their mind.

Still, what are they against the supernatural?  Well, not all of Satan’s minions are created equal, and this weird logo combines the worst in fashion sense from coffee house hipsters and the Jersey Shore.  He looks like he spends way too much time in clubs trying to shout his one-liners to chicks over the techno music to be in any way intimidating.  The Gators take this in an upset.

The (7) San Diego State Aztecs over the (10) Oklahoma Sooners

Let’s see… Jumping the gun on a legal start time to claim land, or ruling from sea to shining sea in southern North America while building huge, complex stone temples without the benefit of modern heavy machinery and then ripping the hearts out of your enemies on top of said buildings?

CAN. YOU. DIG IT!?!?!?!

The (2) Georgetown Hoyas over the (15) Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

It’s a shame we have to end the first full round of Badassity Battles with a race of the weak and generic.  Between the cartoon animal hierarchy and the fact that “FGCU” kind of feels like that little tiny eagle head can’t spell his swear words very well, this one goes to Georgetown.

And you may have won this time, Georgetown, but c’mon – you’re better than this!  You’re the “Hoyas” – you can pick anythign you want to actually represent you.  Something that’s already in your name.  Maybe some undeniably badass historical figure…

Yeah, maybe you’re right. I can’t think of anything either.

Tune in tomorrow night for the rest of the tournament, including the ultimate winner revealed!

This is probably the longest I’ve gone without blogging since I started doing it back in 2005.  There are a lot of reasons for that, but it’s time to come back, unlock the doors, blow off some dust, and open this shop back up.  I’ve been working on a series of posts about what Republicans and conservatives can do to change our fortunes – and the country – for the better, so stay tuned for that.  But as long time fans know, my favorite blogging of the year comes from my own, unique, and of course flawless take on the NCAA tournament.  With the Selection Sunday show now in the books, and the field set, I can no longer sit back and remain silent…

So the mascots are calling me back, along with a lot of readers who have asked me what’s going on and demanding more (thanks, you guys!).  In the meantime, enjoy some hoops predictions in the next few days!

Let me say this at the outset – I hope like hell that I’m wrong about what we’re in store for in the next four years.  I hope my friends who voted for and still support the president are wiser than me.  I hope that Obamacare bends the cost curve down and that it provides good health to Americans in an economically sustainable way.  I hope the economy comes screaming back to life, with the GDP growing at 5%+ every quarter for the duration.  I hope unemployment plummets.  I hope that Obama will make a serious effort to balance the budget.  I hope a Democrat wins in a landslide in 2016 because things are going so well.  I hope Iran will be prevented from getting a nuke because the Islamists are enchanted with him as a global healer.  I hope Obama stops considering me his “enemy.”

No tongue-in-cheek – I hope this will be so with all of my being, even as I know it won’t be so.

~~~

There will be a lot of blame on the candidate, the press, and all sorts of allegations of fraud.  Some of that will be fair, but not all or even most of it.

Romney was a great candidate for this time and this moment.  He was Mr. Fixit in a world that needed fixing.  There are nits to pick, but he was on offense, he hit a strong stride laying out a clear case for responsible budgeting and the promotion of free markets.  He focused on the economy and not the losing social issues.  His organization was strong.  He EARNED record Republican support, among Republicans who were initially mistrustful of him.  None of the three other GOP candidates who remained in contention by the time the caucuses came to Nevada could have done as well – no, Paulestineans, the good doctor would have fared a great deal worse.  But he was necessarily selling the virtues of delayed gratification, and Americans are apparently finished with such quaint notions.

The press was bad – the Benghazi blackout is only the worst of their shamelessness.  But the press hated Reagan, too.  The country is just a different place.  And frankly, the press (gauging from the polls) had a much better read on what the United States is in 2016 than I did.

And absent hard, hard proof, I don’t want to hear about voter fraud.  While fraud is a real problem, the perception of fraud is worse – one of the reason voter ID would be such a boon is that it would make sore loser fraud allegations easy to ignore.  If a critical mass of people really start thinking our elections are all rigged, they will reach for the only alternative to seizing political power the world has ever known – violence.  Those who would pour gasoline on that fire are enemies of liberty, and I repudiate it all in advance.

Hell, I can’t even blame the disaster that our State GOP turned itself into this last year, although they did us no favors in down ballot races.  Thank God the Constitutional offices weren’t up this year.

Nope – I’m proud of the case Romney made, and I’m proud to have voted for him in the caucus.  And everyone knew what his case was.  But the American people chose to reject the virtues of delayed gratification.  We chose to embrace perpetual childhood with Government as our all-powerful parent.  The demographics and culture has shifted, and it won’t shift back until we hit a hard, painful bottom – if ever.

Politics isn’t about “left” and “right”.  It’s about “up” and “down”.  It’s a vector equation, not a study in static points positioned on a stable graph.  Some of my moderate friends who voted for the President aren’t “liberal”, but they nonetheless voted to give the government a greater role in – and control of – our lives, and I think a lot of them are going to be surprised (and not in a good way) at just how far and fast Obama is about to take things to the left.

~~~

Four years ago, I was disappointed in Obama’s victory, but still generally optimistic.  Now?  Not so much.  We’ve seen what he’s about, and seen the results – why would anyone honestly expect anything to be different?  A friendly media can only put so much lipstick on a pig.  Things that can’t go on forever, don’t, and our credit card culture of dependency is a perfect example of that.  I don’t think most Obama voters intended it, but intentions aside, they voted to put the pedal to the metal on the road to decline.

The reason I was wrong about Romney strength (and I WAY overestimated GOP strength) is because this isn’t the same country it was even a decade ago, and I didn’t appreciate that fact.  2010 was a dead cat bounce for conservatism in a lot of ways. Republicans will still win elections, but only as custodians and now open advocates of an ever-increasing welfare state.  America is now fully center left, and that means we have to fully run out of other people’s money before we get off the social welfare state highway.  That won’t be a pleasant experience when it happens, and its happening is inevitable.  Again, things that can’t go on forever, don’t.

Even a decade ago, though, there were signs, signs that my own tribalism blinded me to.  Shame on me.  Our choice of decline is a bi-partisan one, and we are all responsible.  Ironically, my liberal friends in 2004 and 2008 were right in a lot of ways – Bush was doing tremendous damage to the nation’s economy via the expansion of both our social welfare state and our credit card spending.  On national security he was right but insufficiently focused.  He set dangerous precedents in expanding the power of the executive, and of the federal government over the States.  But Obama has literally quadrupled down on all of these sins (literally at least with regard to the deficits).  I still would have voted the way I voted in those past elections, correctly judging the alternative to be worse, but we should have been more vigilant then.

It’s going to get worse.  In very, very large part because of Obama’s “I won, so shut up” type of “leadership,” two halves of this country will continue to engage in all-or-nothing trench warfare.  Yes, there is no shortage of Republican blame, but the guy at the top sets the tone – it was the entire promise of his campaign in 2008, and he threw it in the garbage about an hour after his inauguration.  But Obama, who should be humbled by his significant loss of support even in a victory (and a still-very possible popular vote loss), won’t be, and he will be even more imperious now with nothing further to lose.  Presidents NEED ego, but they also need perspective and humility.  I’m angered and even frightened that the President considers me an “enemy” that he got “revenge” on.  And I’m terrified that he will see this victory as a sweeping mandate for the farthest left government this nation has ever seen.

Well, it’s his now.  I don’t want to hear another God damned word about the “mess I inherited”. And don’t ask this “enemy” for help – you got your “revenge” on me, Mr. President.  Please forgive me if I’m not effusive in my desire to offer my congratulations to someone who won by arguing I want to go all Taliban on women in America, or who thinks that talent, hard work, and success should be resented rather than celebrated.  And I’m not alone.

I so wanted to like and respect this President four years ago.  Not any more.  I will be every bit as gracious towards him in the years to come as he has been to me.  Let’s hope, again, that I’m wrong – this time about the President’s attitude going forward.  I have no place left in my heart for Barack Obama, but even now I don’t want to give up on my President of my Country.

I’m going to step back for awhile.  I didn’t realize how strong the tide I was swimming against was anyway, so I’m going to get out of the water for a bit, hunker down, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.  And hey – I was wrong about where this country was, so maybe I’m wrong about where it’s going.  Either way, the nation is now on a course a majority of her citizens set, and there’s nothing I can do to change it for awhile at least. Like I said last night, there is comfort in certainty!

You have the helm, my liberal friends.  And to my less-than-liberal friends who nonetheless picked this helmsman, my kids are depending on you having picked the right guy.  Again, I pray with all my might that you all are wiser than me.

~~~

Yesterday, I posted this Robert Heinlein quote on my Facebook page.

Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

This is known as “bad luck.”

Expect to hear a lot about “bad luck” in the coming years.

Here’s hoping – again and forever – that I’m wrong.

I think Romney wins tomorrow, and the “why” boils down to this:  Romney isn’t simultaneously demolishing Obama among independent voters and losing the race.  Those two things are just not compatible.  And while the polls have been all over the map, there has been one tremendous consistency – Romney wins big with independent voters.  Even in polls where it’s showing things tied, like in this CNN poll, Romney is winning Indies by 22 points.  22!  And the poll, like many others, assume Democrats will have an even greater electoral advantage than they had in 2008.  No thinking person thinks the electorate will look like this tomorrow.  Couple that with Obama failing to breach 50% pretty much anywhere, along with the tendency of late deciders to break hard for a challenger, and I feel like my cautious optimism is pretty well justified.

The other reason, beyond all others for me, is that Obama is acting like a losing candidate, and Romney is acting like a winning one.  Good polling is very, very expensive, which is one of the reasons there are so many bad ones out there.  Major campaigns are one of the few entities who can afford the better ones.  Obama wouldn’t be talking about getting “revenge” if he thought he was winning – indeed, that word suggests he’salready lost.

But still – VOTE!  A win is good.  A mandate is better.

~~~

But what about Nevada?

For my non-Nevadan readers, this is (l to r) Senator Dean Heller, some guy who blew in from the parking lot, Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Congressman Mark Amodei, Governor Brian Sandoval, and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki.

Today I had the honor and opportunity to lead the Pledge of Allegiance at a campaign stop by Condoleezza Rice here in Reno.  Scheduled to speak before her were my Governor, my Lt. Governor, my Senator, and my Congressman, and we were all in a back room waiting for the former Secretary of State to come.  Four of the most powerful men in Nevada were relaxed, happy, and having fun with each other.  They were warm, respectful, and gracious to harried staffers, volunteers, and almost-3 year-olds who could have slept more last night.

(The Governor lit up when he saw my little girl – someone who didn’t care who he was and wanted nothing from him, which is a breath of fresh air for a politician who hasn’t forgotten who he is.  He gave her an official Governor’s Coin, which she clung to the rest of the day – I’m grinning from ear to ear just remembering what a sweet little moment that was!)

A little trash talk about various native high schools was tossed back and forth in between scheduling discussions unrelated to campaigning.  Family news was shared – Senator Heller’s daughter was there as well.  But most striking was the underlying, unspoken, and genuine respect that these men had for each other, and for the work they were doing.  You don’t get into politics without plenty of ego, but these are people who know who they are, are comfortable in their skins, and don’t rely on their jobs for their identities – which always frees anyone to do the best job they can, without fear.

Our state is in good hands with these folks.

What’s more, the campaign staff and party volunteers were professional, competent, and confident.  A young Team Nevada staffer named Elizabeth Heng coordinated this particular event (as well as Romney’s big stop in Reno last week), and if she’s any indication of the quality of staff a President Romney will bring to the White House (and I suspect she is), then America will be well served indeed.

The confluence of a solid ground organization in Nevada and strong GOP elected leadership willing and able to get involved with that organization can – and I think will – pay big dividends for conservatives in Nevada in the coming years.  If there’s a silver lining in some of the nonsense that’s bedeviled our party in the last year, it’s that the disruptive elements have obliterated their credibility and relevance, and others who I might have put in that category before are seeing the light.

Will it be enough to win Nevada for Romney?  I don’t know, but I bet it’s closer than anyone anticipates.  There are a lot of “ground glass” voters in Nevada, and no doubt plenty of softer Democrats who believe the pre-mortems and won’t feel quite so compelled.  Here’s hoping.  I think Romney can win Nevada, but if he does, he’ll have already won big in states like Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and maybe even Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.

~~~

Here’s the thing, though – I’ve been a terrible prognosticator in the past, and I’ve gotten smart enough to know how much I don’t know since.  (On the other hand, this post from 4 years ago seems remarkably prescient today.)  Obama could well win.

Four years ago, just before Obama was elected, I wrote that I hoped first and foremost that if he won, I hoped he would succeed (oh, and how I do sincerely wish Obama was cruising to reelection on the basis of a screaming economic recovery!)  But I wrote that if had to fail, as I was worried he would, that he fail spectacularly so that the nation had adequate understanding of that failure and also had time to change course.

That presupposes an essential wisdom (not to be confused with infallibility) of the American people.  Obama’s failures are indeed spectacular, after all, and nothing whatsoever could possibly lead any rational person to think those failures wouldn’t continue on into a second term.  Obama has shown himself to be imperious, petty, thin skinned, and small.  He cannot reach across the isle, and he cannot command the respect it takes to lead in Congress, even among his own party members.  He is neither respected nor feared abroad, and when our nation was attacked on 9/11, he spent the next two weeks lying about what happened in an attempt to convince us (and probably himself) that the world isn’t as scary as it actually is these days.  His entire attitude towards women is that they need Big Daddy Government to run their lives, otherwise they’re helpless.  He has no concept what will happen to big government entitlement programs once the national credit card he’s been putting them on reaches its limit.

Far from his “no red America or blue America” days, he now openly sees me – a mere political opponent – as an “enemy” against whom he should seek “revenge.”

If the American people really chose to stick with all of this, hoping they are merely the last to be eaten by the crocodile of debt and over-regulation, then my presupposition was wrong, and we’ve already adopted an unsustainable culture of dependence that we won’t relieve ourselves of until we’re forced to give it up when we realize we’ve done a Wile E. Coyote off the fiscal cliff.  But if that’s the country I learn I live in, well, that will be good to know for certain so we can plan accordingly.

~~~

Either way, it will be nice to have a break from it all, and some certainty going forward.  And who knows – I have tremendous friends who happen to be Obama voters, people I know to be hard working, industrious, and self-reliant – people who, when push comes to shove, will do everything they can to keep this country decent, good, and prosperous.  We can survive another Obama term (which I confidently predict would turn off even more of his remaining supporters than his first term did), it will just be a lot harder to dig back out after another $6 trillion in additional debt.

I always marvel that we still transfer power in this country in “fights” with words and ballots – to everyone who thinks political ads on TV are bad, just imagine the alternative.  But just because we’ve had a good thing going for a couple of centuries doesn’t mean it will last forever, and scary things happen when we run out of other people’s money.

So let’s save ourselves all that trouble.  Go vote.  Vote in swing states and non swing states.  Make the repudiation of failure as big and loud as possible.

I believe that underneath it all, America is still America, and the spirit which has made our destiny is alive and well from sea to sea.

Please join me in proving that to be true tomorrow at the polls!

As a successful business guy, Romney is necessarily very good at FIRST asking the question, “What does it mean to win?”  Pundits and activists want to count blows and “points” and other such nonsense.  Undecided voters want a gut feel that the guy they’re voting for is going to take care of business so they can quit paying attention to politics for awhile.

Obama was playing for the pundits (and even they are conceding that Romney “passed the Commander-in-Chief Test”), Romney for the voters.  If the polls after the last debates are any indication – and I think they will be – the momentum remains with Romney.

My cautious optimism is growing…

Read the full recap here! 

7:33:  I thought the body language of the closing arguments was very, very telling.  Obama did this two handed thing that made him look like he was begging.  Romney, on the other hand, sat straight and steady, in a way that made it VERY easy to picture him giving a speech in the oval office.  That, and Romney’s was a closing argument, much more so than Obama’s.

7:27:  The crowd collapses at Romney’s nice jab at the President’s promises versus his results.  Back to jobs, which is what people care about.

7:22:  It’s probably because I can’t see at this point, or hear as well because of the room I’m in, but I feel like this debate is ending with a whimper all around.  It’s very wonky at this point, without major drama or gaffes, and without any soundbite moments, with the possible exception of Romney hitting Obama on the Apology tour.

7:19:  Currency manipulation!  Important, but I bet another million just switched over to baseball.

7:17:  Romney clarifying how government promotes job growth, as opposed to directly creating jobs.  I think Romney is a little too rosy about China’s intentions, though.  To me, I’m actually more scared of a Chinese economic collapse (I think they’re in their own economic bubble) than a robust Chinese economy.

7:14:  I had to switch rooms for an outlet, so I missed the last few minutes, and can’t see any more.  But enough to hear China platitudes from POTUS.  Is Obama really bragging about how we SUE China?  Do we really think they’re afraid of our lawyers?

7:12:  Romney likes drones too – but will he bring up executive kill lists?  And goes back to economic development.

7:11:  Romney has clearly done his homework on the geo-political mess that is Pakistan, and lays out a great argument for how and why we should continue to engage them.

7:08:  Get out of Afgahnistan and create jobs and infrastructure.  Again, I’m all for hiring vets, but don’t we have a lot of out-of-work people here who could be doing the building Obama proposes now?  Oh, yeah – we blew our wad on Obamacare and Solyndras instead.

7:07:  “We were bogged down in Iraq when I took office.”  This is an outrageous lie – it was Bush’s surge that turned things around, and allowed us to leave with a stable (more or less) country behind.  It’s too Obama’s credit that he followed Bush’s blueprint to the end, but it’s to his shame that he can’t admit this.  What a small, small man.

7:06:  Romney reminds folks that Pakistan has nukes, and that makes things tougher.  He should tie this in to the same – worse – problems we’ll face if Iran gets a nuke.

7:04:  Afghanistan.  What if they can’t handle this?  A very good question.  Let’s be honest here – no one has a good answer to this.

7:03:  I remember when the left complained about Presidential candidates trying to dig too much emotional pull out of 9/11…

7:02:  As a trial lawyer, if you’re going to impeach someone based on past statements, it’s helpful to have those actual statements at your disposal, Mr. President.  He’s vague, and obviously vague in most areas.  And “PAHK-ee-stan”!

7:01:  “I don’t see our influennce growing around the world,” in no small part due to our economic weakness.  This is great stuff.

6:59:  What if they call to tell you bombers are on their way?  Romney correctly demolishes the foolishness of this entire premise.

6:58:  “I went to museums, so I care.”  And now Obama starts bring out the practiced, “How dare you” outrage.

6:56:  Iran is at its weakest point in years?  “Four years closer to a nuclear Iran.”  Yes.  “And by the way, you skipped Israel.  And they noticed.”  And now Romney is quoting the President back at him.  Awesome.

6:55:  “Nothing Romney said is true.”  Except it’s all on video, Mr. President.  All of it.  And if the sanctions against Iran were “effective,” those centrifuges wouldn’t be spinning.

6:54:  “Apology tour”.  And back to the Green Revolution in Iran.  Daylight between us and Israel.  Great, great stuff.  And “spinning centrifuges” now in operation.  VEry effective here.

6:51:  I agree that a lot of times two candidates share positions on foreign policy.  But the question then is who can do it more effectively.  Obama is not inspiring confidence here, with his constant reference back to “bringing people together” as if that, in and of itself, is a final goal.

6:50:  I like Romney’s bulletized arguments.  I think they’re very effective, this one in particular.  And it’s something I don’t think a lot of people have heard.

6:48:  The outlet I’m plugged into has no juice, and I’m stuck in the crowd.  If the feed ends abruptly, fair warning.

6:47:  Does anyone think Iran takes Obama seriously when he says he’ll prevent Iran from getting a nuke?

6:46:  Some of my Navy friends are expressing a lot of outrage on Facebook.  This will really resonate, I think (and hope).

6:44:  Romney talks about sea power more than any other President or Presidential candidate I’ve ever heard.  I love it, not just out of Navy love, but because it’s a huge strategic force multiplier.  ANd WOW – Obama’s answer comparing ships to horses is just ignorant beyond all belief.  Does he really think a forward deployed Navy is obsolete?  Because that’s pretty much what he just said.  What a fool – read some frickin’ history, for crying out loud.  Start with Mahan.

6:43:  “I’ve balanced budgets, Obama hasn’t.”  And I think this is why a lot of late deciders will ulitmately pull the lever for Romney.

6:41:  Does Obama really think we can roll our military spending back to French levels, and keep America safe?  Does he think we should SHRINK to get on par with China?  The “France” bit from the President got a guffaw from the room.  It’s bad when they’re angry with you, Mr. President, it’s far, far worse when they’re laughing at you.

6:40:  Obama is really clueless about Romney’s tax proposals.

6:39:  This crowd likes repealing Obamacare and giving money back to the states.  And good for him for tying that in to military budgets.

6:38:  Obama interrupts on education, and looks desperate.  And I suspect the Governor is correct on his facts here.  Excellent.

6:35:  I love that this debate has just fully shifted to jobs.  Does Obama really think this helps him?  I have to think that at this point, the only people not watching football or baseball who might still be undecided are actually pretty concerned about foreign policy.  I’m happy to talk about the economy in this election, but this seems so far afield as to be an attempted diversion.  And Schiefer helps by bringing it back.  Romney stepped on himself here – he should have taken the softball, I think, although his answer here is a good one.

6:34:  ROmney goes domestic himself.  I hope he mentions that Obama’s foreign policy involves more Solyndras.  (Green energy?  Really, Mr. President?  THAT’S your foreign policy?)

6:33:  Obama on cutting spending.  HAHAHAHAHA!!!!  And launches into a domestic stump speech, which is odd and disconnected.  Then he hits Bush and Cheney, which is just weak.

6:32:  The crowd here laughed and groaned when Obama said we’re stronger now as a nation than we were four years ago.  Again – does ANYONE actually believe this?

6:31:  Hitting Israel, Poland – calls the deterioration of those relationships “unfortunate.”  #understatement  And he hits the Green Revolution in Iran, which the President Ignored.  Awesome.

6:29:  Romney gets a second chance to talk about broader vision, which he already did.  Good.  I think Romney is doing a great job with his “Peace through (Economic) Strength” argument.

6:28:  “We must be strong to promote principles of peace.”  Including economically strong – excellent.  The crowd here actually applauded.

6:25:  Majority rule in Egypt does NOT equal “democracy” as we understand it.  THere are no protections there for women or religious minorities, and Obama’s failure to help counterwieights to the Muslim Brotherhood has helped ensure this.  Obama is shamefully out-to-lunch on this.  Romney:  “I wish we’d had a better vision for the FUTURE.”  EXACTLY.

6:23:  The difference between what Obama is saying and Romney is saying is that Romney might actually have the competence to, you know, actually get that done.

6:22:  “Would you go beyond what the President will do?”  “No military in Syria, arm the friendly locals.”  Obama talks about engaging the friendlies, but everywhere he’s had the chance to do this, he’s failed.  I wish Romney would hit that fact harder and more often.

6:21:  “We HAVE led – we ‘organized’ ‘Friends of Syria.’”.  Oh, good lord – this is self-parody!

6:20:  Again, Romney is talking about “what comes next” after Assad is no more.  Again, very smart.

6:19:  “Syria is an opportunity.”  And he taks about the importance of Syria to Iran in terms of support and geography (sea power).  THis is an incredibly smart analysis that I haven’t thought of in this way, and it’s a great argument for the importance of Syria I hadn’t really considered before.  Very nice answer.

6:16:  “Mr. President, you said Assad had to go a year ago, and he’s still there.”  Wow – I think Schiefer just called Obama feckless.  Obama’s response is not helpful to him – “But we got together a bunch of people to write a nasty letter to Assad!”  Talk about projecting weakness.

6:15:  Does ANYONE believe Obama on Israel at this point?  So far, though, Obama is doing more to bring the debate back to the domestic evconomy than Romney, which I think Romney should also do more.

6:14:  Obama foreign policy:  “Let me be clear.”  Ugh.  I  LOVE that Romney brought up Obama’s off-mic comment to Medvedev about greater “flexibility.”  This crowd went wild.

6:13:  Romney is now owning the PResident.  “Oh – you didn’t WANT a SOFA?”  Nice.

6:12:  “Every time you’ve had an opinion on foreign policy, you’ve been wrong.”  Please.  Imagine what a world with an in-tact Baathist Iraq would look like today…

6:11:   “The 80s are asking for their foreign policy back.”  Funny, but is Obama really this ignorant of Russia’s role in propping up Iran?

6:10:  “We don’t want another Iraq.”  Again, smart way to distance himself from people who don;t like Obama, but fear a “nothing but war” Bush stereotype.

6:08:  Obama is taking credit for single handedly “winning” in Libya.  THis shoudl frighten everyone – remember just how unilaterally that was done.  And now the power vacuum is being filled by Jihadists while Obama blames Youtube videos.

6:07:  “We’ve been safe the last four years.”  I remember four years ago when this same man sneered at that as an argument, because attacking bad guys just made more of them…  The crod here is unimpressed with Obama right now, not surprisingly

6:06:  Congratulating Obama on killing OBL right away is smart – takes the power out of that.  “We can’t kill out way out of this,” which is true, but it doesn’t hurt…

6:05:  Romney is smart to talk about the promise of the Arab Spring, and the missed opportunity it presented.  Romnye needs to provide contrast without saying, “I’d go to war with ‘em all!”, and this is exactly the way to do it.

6:04:  Sheifer starts by talking about the Cuban missile crisis and a reminder of what happens if we get this wrong.  Then he goes into Libya, where he does not simply assume it was an “intelligence failure.”

6:03:  Is it just me, or does this crowd seem pro-Romney from that intro cheer as Romney waved?  Probably just me.

6:01:  And we begin…

5:58:  Dave Buell is pumping up the crowd, telling people to go vote, and talking about how even the foreign press is focusing on this swingiest county in this swingiest state.  If Romney wins Washoe, and I think he will, Dave will have a lot to do with that.

5:54:  Let’s hope Bob Scheifer either gets his facts right, or stays out of the way.  Crowley did better than I expected last time, but she still obliterated her credibility with her Libya “fact check.”  Does anyone wonder why the public is mistrustful of the media?  Staying out of the way and letting the candidates do their thing is the way to do it.  I understand this format is supposed to be like the first, except with sitting, which is good.  (Except for the sitting.)

5:53:  BTW, if folks want to comment, you surely can.  I won’t see your comments until afterwards in all probability, but a few people have told me they wanted to make them and didn’t think they could.

5:50:  There are a lot of young people here, which is great, many of whom are women.  #waronwomennarrativefail

What Does It Mean To Win:  Some initial thoughts here.  It’s now clear that Obama did NOT win the last debate, nor did Joe Biden win his.  When it comes to almost any campaign activity, the measure of a win is this, and only this:  Are more people now more likely to vote for you than for the other guy?  At then end of the second debate when the undecided focus groups on both Fox and MSNBC say they were more swayed to Romney, I hardly believed it.  But the continued poll movement across the country towards Romney suggest they were, in fact, representative.

Tonight, Romney needs to continue doing what he does – be confident, competent, and in command of both the room and the facts.  There were a lot of soft Obama supporters who weren’t happy with the incumbent, and were waiting for an excuse to vote against him.  Romney gave them a viable alternative in both debates, and short of a major meltdown by Romney tonight, it’s hard to see how that changes back.  And the fact that the major takeaway from major supporters of the Pres was “binders” actually reinforced Romney’s competence/seriousness argument in a way the candidate himself could not have done alone.

Thanks, liberal Facebook memes!

Here we go for the final round.  This time I thought it would be fun to come to the Reno area campaign HQ for one of the debate watching parties.

The party is in the phone bank, where about a dozen volunteers were still working a few minutes ago.  And now it’s starting to fill up for the debate itself.  It’s pretty amazing – I know a lot of the local Republican volunteers, but most of these folks I haven’t met, which is fantastic.  The energy is high, and most importantly, confident.  Almost everyone in this room believes Romney is going to win this race, but are hungry for more than just a mere win.  And there is a lot of buzz for Romney’s just-announced visit this coming Wednesday, where people are talking about our candidate with an affection I wouldn’t have thought possible just a few months ago.

I remember being here 4 years ago, at this time, and the vibe is very, very different.  These are people who feel like they’re part of a winning team, and that energy is infectious.  Good.

Crowley was much better than I thought, but not as good as she could have been.  And she was incredibly misleading about Obama calling the Benghazi incident a terrorist attack, as was Obama, of course.  Again – moderators can’t be trusted to be “fact checkers” any more than the candidates.  But still, Romney missed a huge opportunity on that, and missed an opportunity to really put the President on the spot.  I’m glad there is a final debate focusing on foreign policy.  And I’m equally glad that exchange will now dominate the reaction press until the next debate.

There were three exchanges when Romney was essentially trying to cross examine the President, and the President squirmed.  He needs to do more of that.

If folks were still undecided going in to this debate, I doubt this will change their minds – they will wait until the third.  I think Obama stopped some bleeding, but gained no new ground.  My Facebook feed tells me it was a draw – lots of enthusiasm from my friends on both sides.  And I have to think the President’s sunny picture of the economy will sit in jarring contrast to what people are seeing in their lives.

As always, the Ultimate Poll will tell!

Click here to read the full live blog… 

7:38:  “I believe in free enterprise and individual initiative.”  No you don’t.  If Obama believes what he’s saying, he doesn’t understand what those words actually mean.  And, like a coward, he brings up the 47% thing when he thinks Romney won’t have a chance to respond.  This is a personal attack, and Romney better take charge and answer it, but isn’t allowed.

7:34:  Last question – how have you been mischarcterized?  Romney brings up the “47%” comment first, which is interesting, although he did it obliquely, and then turns it into a closing statement.

7:32:  Crowley with a very fair question about labor costs.  Romney’s answer on Intellectual Property is a good way to approach this – no one can say we can get China wages.  Obama admits this as well, but then speaks only generally about “Super Dooper Manufacturing jobs”.  I put that in the “green jobs” magic box, with comparable expectation of results.

7:30:  Now it’s Obama with his back to the camera.  One audience member looks like he’s sleeping.

7:29:  “Regulations quadrupled.”  And back to Obamacare, which correctly is pointed out as King Regulation.

7:27:  Romney talks China.  Obama looks ready to pounce.  “Trickle down government”.  I feel like all the wind went out of the sales of the whole thing, unless it’s the In-N-Out burger putting me to sleep. 

7:26:  Now Crowley is fighting with Obama over the clock.  Ugh – this is the problem with two-short answers.

7:23:  ANd Crowley now reaches in in a way she’s not done the entire debate to debate against Romney, and cut off discussion of a topic that hurts Obama.  This is why we don’t trust moderators.

7:22:  Fast and Furious – very cool.  Again, Romney makes good use of a question that clearly was weighted against him.

7:20:  I agree that good schools can help reduce violence, particularly in the inner city.  But they haven’t – and we all know which party has dominated inner city education policy, particularly in Chicago.  And parents – YES!  That matters a lot, and I’m glad Romney has the guts to say it out loud.

7:18:  Gun control?  1993 called…  I just don’t understand why this question would be chosen, of all the other more significant issues.

7:15:  I agree with Obama.  It IS offensive that this was politicized, and of course it was politicized by Obama, which is why he’s talking about the tape.  Crowley fact-checks both, to utter confusion.  And the clapping from the audience for each is interesting – undecided indeed…

7:14:  Wait a minute – I thought al Qaeda was defeated?

7:13:  On the other hand, my wife really liked that answer from Romney, and thought it walked a fine line.

7:12:  Romney is pulling his punches on Libya, and I don’t know why.  The debacle was either a deliberate coverup (as the questioner suggested) or it’s massive incompetence.  There is no third option, and Romney shoudl be hitting this harder.

7:11:  Obam greets the coffins.  Sure.  And sends form letters to the families of the fallen.

7:10:  We know who did this.  It was al qaeda.  Obama knew that for weeks, and was still blaming a YouTube video.  And now Obama is blaming… Romney?  Please.  I was a little worried about Romney’s response at the time, but in retrospect, it was remarkably prescient.

7:09:  “Not just representing the US, they represent ME.”  Oh, well then, your majesty.

7:08:  Libya question, hard on Obama.  Things just got interesting again.

7:07:  I love that Romney knows more about Obama’s retirement fund than Obama does.

7:06:  I feel like the debate is starting to drag a little at this point.  If I wasn’t live blogging, I’d be confident, but getting bored and wandering to Cracked.com.

7:05:  Good thing we have a moderator to fact check POTUS.  (In all seriousness, I think she’s doing quite well.)

7:04:  That is NOT what the AZ law said – this is a straight lie.  I’ve actually read that bill.  IN fact, it specifically says they CAN’T stop people on that basis.  Wow.

7:02:  The flow of illegal aliens is lower, but that’s because they left when the economy crapped the bed.  I give Obama props for stepping up this enforcement, but it’s not been sufficient or comprehensive.

6:59:  Next question:  Immigration, worded in a standard, leftist way.  I didn’t know that about Ann Romney.  I really like Romney’s answer on this, and I think it’s very much in line with what most Americans want to see – no amnesty, but make it easier to come in legally.  And he’s sympathetic to something like the DREAM Act, which I also agree with (devil in the details, of course).  The line about how you shouldn’t need a lawyer to come in legally” really resonates to anyone who has ever tried to do just that, while watching folks stream in over the fence seemingly without consequence.

6:58:  And finally, Romney explains the mirage that is the “5 million jobs” number.  Excellent.

6:56:  The camera angle isn’t doing Obama any favors.  I feel like he looks like a gargoyle.  Podiums, people.  Podiums.  And why is Obama smiling and nodding as Romney says “food stamps” and “23 million Americans out of work”?  Shades of Biden, and not in a good way for Obama.

6:54:  “I think you know better about the last 4 years.”  “If you reelect President Obama, you know what you’re going to get.”  And now he’s throwing past promises back in Obama’s face.  very, very good.

6:53:  Obama TRIED hard.  #participationtrophypresident

6:52:  “We defeated our enemies.”  Really?  Oh, right – that WAS just a movie review gone bad in Libya.

6:51:  The Wife:  “All these differences Obama is listing make me want to vote for Romney more.”

6:50:  Obama blames tax cuts for the deficits.  Please scroll down to that chart again.  And how have all these tax increases worked out for us?

6:49:  Aaaaaand Obama goes back to his anti-Bush stump speech.  And again, we get back to the difference between “net” and “gross” WRT jobs.

6:48:  And throwing Obama’s 2008 anti-deficit rhetoric back in the President’s face, bringing it away from Bush while still distancing this man from that.  Excellent use of a loaded question.

6:46:  “I still blame Bush.”  Please.  I like that Romney went back on the health care stuff, though.  But back to Bush, and talking about how energy technology is different.  That’s nice.  And China!

6:43:  Obama says the government shouldn’t dictate to women’s health care choices, and then brags about how his Obamacare dictates what women must pay for in their health insurance.  And EVERY OTHER HEALTH DECISION THEY MAKE.  Remember, my liberal friends – any power Obama gives himself will be available if some Big Government In The Name Of Jesus type takes office.

6:41:  Obama gives platitudes, while knowing women IN HIS ADMINISTRATION are paid less than similarly situated men.  Romney talks about what he actually did.  I can’t believe this question is favoring Romney, but I think it is.  I do wish he’d point out Obama’s own personnel issues, though, although he’s probably smarter to stay on his high road.

6:40:  Federalizing student loans is now “cutting out the middle man.”  Of course, it ALSO means that if you LOSE that loan because of, say, a prior marijuana possession conviction, you have NO WHERE ELSE TO GO.  Also, is Obama saying we should “cut out the middle man” in every industry by having the government take it over?  Didn’t a bunch of countries in Eastern Europe try that a few years ago?

6:38:  Question 4 – equal pay for women.  Obama brings up his mother, and pell grants?

6:36:  Obama has NO credibility talking about “blowing up the deficit.”  NONE.  Romney’s answer is good, but let me summarize:

6:34:  Really?  You brought up Big Bird?  You’ve seen the polls after that meme, right Mr. President?

6:33:  Only 3 questions, a half hour in.  Real back-and-forth.  Crowley, with a single exception, is staying out of the way and letting the candidates mix it up with each other.  I’m pleasantly surprised so far.

6:31:  I’m very impressed with how Romney ties in tax rates versus tax revenue, and applies them to job growth.  He’s very good at this.  Ooh!  And he talks about how this is ALSO a “women’s issue.”

6:30:  I’m all for hiring vets, but I’m not sure how that grows the economy (as opposed to hiring non-vets).

6:29:  Is reminding people of Clinton smart, when people can compare that success with today’s failure?

6:28:  Obama cut taxes?!?!?!?!  Again, if we had a “fact checking” moderator, she would be talkign about Obamacare and the difference between net and gross.

6:27:  “High spending equals eventual high taxes on EVERYONE.”  Awesome, and true.  Things that can’t go on forever, won’t.

6:26:  I want Romney to point out here that Obamacare is only Constitutional because it’s a “tax,” which means Obama raised taxes on the middle class more than any politician in American history.

6:25:  I couldn’t even follow this question about taxes and student loans, but I like the effect of a general topic on taxes.

6:23:  And now Romney is owning yet another moderator.  I’m feeling very good.

6:22:  Obama, in a panic, goes back to his stump speech about “the worst economic crisis,” which isn’t true.  And where are these pipelines Obama speaks of?  They aren’t bringing in shale oil from Canada!  And then he goes back to wind power without details.

6:21:  WOW.  Romney just told the President to sit down and shut up, and he did.  I can hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth from MSNBC already.  Romney is dominating this topic.

6:20:  Romney engages the President directly, and the President hems and haws for a full 30 seconds or so, and then didn’t answer the question.  First blood is drawn by Romney on both style and substance.

6:18:  Obama says what Romney says isn’t true, but then gives NO specifics on what, exactly, isn’t true.  And then changes the subject to Bain closing a plant.

6:17:  Great contrast from Romney on energy between promises and policy.  But here comes Crowley asking, “But Mr. President, is this really your fault?”  Please.

6:16:  Love this answer from Romney – Obama actually opposed and fought what he’s now bragging about.  The camera angle is awful, though – really?  We can only afford one, and have to keep it on Romney’s back?  Yet another reason to hate this format, when it’s primarily designed for TV.

6:14:  Because clean energy has been SOOOOOO economically successful.  Well, I suppose it has, if you have connections to the Obama administration and can get free Other People’s Money before going out of business with nothing to show for it.

6:12:  Wow, a second arguably anti-Obama question, regarding energy prices, and the Administrations promises to raise them.  And then Obama tells the same lie from last time that “we” have increased oil production, without saying that it’s only being done on land NOT controlled by the feds.  I’m sure Romney will, as he did last time.  And now Obama loves fossil fuels?  Please.

6:11:  Did Obama really get through lawschool without having any clue how bankruptcy actually works? Wow.   I suppose he spent plenty of time “teaching” Constitutional Law without ever bothering to learn how THAT works…

6:09:  Obama is trying to pull off the smiling interested look, but still looks petulant.  I like Romney pointing out how bankruptcy actually works, but I wonder how this will play.  I LOVE though, that he’s pointing out that GM DID, in fact, go bankrupt.

6:08:  Obama just gave a stump speech, not an answer.

6:06:  5 million jobs.  If we had a “fact checking” moderator, she would point out the difference between “net” and “gross.”  When you count the people who have dropped out of the labor force completely, we’ve lost far, far more than we’ve gained.

6:05:  “Investment in education.”  I hate this phrase, because it assumes ALL education spending will ALWYAS pay off, which isn’t true at all.

6:04:  First question:  “Little chance as 20 year old”.  It’s a good one, and important.  For some reason, it brings to mind faded Obama posters on childhood bedrooms.

6:03:  And we begin.  Crowley wants “concise” answers, which I think is lame.  2 minutes is hardly enough to address complex budget issues.  Good for the media soundbyte biz, bad for policy.

5:59:  The bug/feature of live blogging is that I look at my computer and mostly listen to the debate, so I miss many of the oh-so-important visuals.  But it does look like the “questioners” are wearing suits, which is good.  I hate when civilian participants in an important event like this roll in with sweat pants and a t-shirt and want the President/America to take them more seriously.  There’s a formality that we’ve lost as a society that is worth getting back.

5:55:  Switching to CNN CSPAN, in spite of my crush on Megyn Kelly…

5:51:  As always, there may be toddler induced tape delay.

5:44:  If this blog is too cerebral, I always recommend Stephen Green’s drunkblogging.  Indeed, a hero and an inspiration to me (and I’m dead sober serious about that).

5:40:  Some initial thoughts.  Since I’ve been harping on moderator stuff, let me say it again – the idea that a moderator needs to be anything more than a timekeeper and a gentle enforcer of the relative speaking time between the two parties is nonsense, as proven by the last two debates.  Raddatz made herself known, but at no time engaged in “fact checking”.  Her presence served to obfuscate, not illuminate.

And as much as I dislike moderators, I dislike these “townhalls” more.  Instead of specific, secret questions, have broadly worded topic segments known to the candidates in advance.  This isn’t a quiz show, and I dislike further the “illusion” that “regular people” are just winging screwballs at the candidates.  It’s not any less coordinated by the moderator, and only serves to be gimmicky.

As we learned in the last debate, the longer candidates are allowed to speak uninterrupted by each other or the moderator, the more useful and illuminating the debate will be – and that ALWAYS should be the goal.  Anything else is theater designed to protect candidates from themselves, and when that happens, voters lose.  Hopefully Crowley will understand that just as any high school debater would, but I have my doubts.

Back by popular demand!  We’ll get started in just a few.

Not a clear domination like the last debate.  Indeed – it left me damned frustrated for the lack of substance.  This is what happens when you have a too-present moderator who won’t do her one actual job, which is to be the umbrella for both sides when it’s their turn to speak.  Horrible.  Just horrible. And by the way, hate, hate, hate this sitting.  I agree with Peggy Noonan – stand up at podiums, people.

Ryan was unflappable, but I actually wish he would have flapped a bit more in response to Biden’s constant interrupting and grinning.  How great would it have been if he would have said, “Mr. Vice President, I don’t find 4 dead Americans funny – why are you laughing?”  And, “Mr. Vice President, I understand you don’t want the American people to hear the truth behind these numbers, but they deserve to hear them, and they can’t when you keep speaking over me and jumping in.  Be still for just 2 minutes!”  Biden exemplifies the incompetence of our political class.

The talking heads are aghast right now about the interruptions and rudeness.  I wonder what effect that imagery will have, especially coupled with the calm demeanor of Ryan.  For anyone with a well-tuned BS detector, interrupting like that spikes the BS Meter off the charts.  I’ve been losing faith, however, in the calibration of the American electorate’s BS detectors…

There is plenty here for both sides to claim victory on, but I don’t know.  I think both sides credibly got their messages out, and the question is how they will resonate with the undecideds, who are a mercurial bunch.  As always, when I live blog, I hear more than I see, and I thought Ryan had more memorable quips and takeaways, even a few with numbers (run the govt for 98 days and all that).

I didn’t watch it on CNN, but I understand from people who did that the undecided voter reaction was incredibly positive for Ryan, particularly with women.  If that’s true, the takeaway from this will be whether Biden energizing his base at the expense of turning off the undecideds came at too high a price for Obama.  Update on this:  The CNN snap poll:

Winner: Ryan 48%, Biden 44%
More likeable: Ryan 53%, Biden 43%
More in touch with problems of people like you: Ryan 51%, Biden 44%

CNBC Snap Poll:

Paul Ryan: 56%, Joe Biden: 36%, Neither: 8%

As I understand it, these snap polls are pre-selected, self-described undecided voters.  If that’s indeed the case, then this was a BIG win, since “winning” in this case is defined as what moves the most voters to our side.  If these numbers are accurate, the momentum Romney built last week was solidified, and that’s a good thing.

Click here for the whole live blog! 

7:30:  Ryan:  Obama had his chance, and it failed.  Exactly.  I’m surprised Biden isn’t yelling “BLAH BLAH BLAH!!!!!”

7:29:  Biden is so churlish.  He didn’t crap his pants, but really  if you were looking to give one of these two men $1,000 to invest, which would it be?  The guy who so lacks confidence that he’ll be upstaged that he can’t even let the other guy get out a complete sentence?

7:26:  Stuff Middle Class likes will be eviscerated!  Please – what will eviscerate them is to run up the credit card until we run out of other people’s money and have no ability to get more.  That event is closer than we thing.  I’m not a Republican because I oppose the government helping people, I’m a Republican because I need that assistance to be sustainable.

7:23:  So opponents to a sitting President’s foreign policy are an “abomination”?  Like all those people critical of Bush for so long?  I agree with Bush a lot of the time, but I was happy to see him criticized.  It’s a sign of weakness to claim your opponent shouldn’t even be allowed to question what you do – one more piece of evidence of a weak presidency.

7:22:  Hey, Joe – MILITARY PEOPLE PAY TAXES!!!!  If not, I’m owed an awfully big refund…

7:21:  Talking about Supreme Court nominees – every presidential election year, I wish this were a bigger issue.  But for Biden to say that Obama’s judges don’t have an agenda is nonsense.  ALL of them have agendas, whcih we call “judicial philosophies.”  I’m fine with that – let’s be honest about it.

7:20:  Thank you Todd Akin, for giving Biden this opening.  Gah.

7:16:  Abortion?  Really?  But I have to say that I strongly identify with what Ryan is saying right now.  I used to be pro-choice, and remained largely agnostic on the issue for a long time.  But I changed my mind after long discussions with a close Catholic friend of mine, and I could never go back after seeing my own kid in an ultrasound. Having said that, more humility all around is needed on this issue.  But that said, I hate this whole, “I won’t impose my morality.”  If that were the standard, we wouldn’t outlaw the killing of toddlers, either.

7:15:  Must be in the national interest – humanitarian alone not enough.  I agree with this to a point, but humanitarian reasons shoudln’t be ignored, either.

7:12:   “What happens if Assad hangs on?”  Death.  “We should work with true reformers” – I agree.  And back to Iraq SOFA failure.

7:10:   “We wouldn’t be outsourcing our foreign policy.”  And explains how Russia is NOT, in fact, our ally, as Biden claimed earlier in the debate.

7:09:  “Identify the people who need help.”  And then ignore them like we did in Libya, Egypt, Iran, Syria, Tunisia, etc. etc. etc….

7:08:  “What’s the difference between Libya and Syria?”  “It’s a different country.”  One heartbeat away, folks.

7:07:   “We’re” sending in more Afghans?  Ugh.  Talk about completely not understanding the situation and culture in that country.

7:06:  Ryan clearly studied all these tribe names, and couldn’t wait to pull them out.  It’s amazing that Ryan has been so much better on foreign policy than on the economy, although that’s because he’s being allowed to actually, you know, participate on that issue.

7:03:  Good on Martha for calling out Bdien on the political timing on the surge.  I don’t think she’s doing a very good job as moderator, but I think she’s being fair.

7:02:  I agree that Afghan security is the responsibility of the Afghans.  The problem is that what happens in Afghanistan doesn’t stay in Afghanistan, which makes their security OUR concern.

7:00:  “We are leaving in 2014, period.”  Because those announcements are preventing Afghans from sucker-murdering the soldiers who are training them.  We need to stay in the Middle East the way we stayed in Europe for 60 years after WWII, and for the same reasons.

6:59:  I really wish ANYONE on the ticket had served in the military.  And Biden, you going on a fact finding trip doesn’t count, and it’s offensive to claim that mantle – “WE went in there to get Bin Laden”.  Incredibly offensive.

6:56:  Budget issues cannot be discussed in 2 second snips, but inaccurate demagoguery can.  Biden knows this, which is why he keeps ensuring 2 second snips back and forth.  Hack.

6:54:  Ryan’s being far too nice to Biden at this point.  Biden’s strategy is clear – tak talk talk until they both look small, and no one hears details or explanations.  And now the moderator is playing the Biden strategy.  I’m seriously pissed off.

6:52:  Ryan needs to tell Biden to stuff it again.  This is really pissing me off.  Biden filibustered this entire section, and the moderator did nothing.  THIS IS THE ONE THING A MODERATOR IS SUPPOSED TO STEP IN FOR!!!!!!

6:50:  Biden, STFU!!!!  Let the man speak!

6:49:  “How do you pay for tax cuts?”  I thought Ryan was TOO specific?  Ryan is right to propose frameworks, though – it’s not like this tax plan or that will be implemented wholesale upon taking office.

6:47:  If you taxed them all at 100%, it would only run the government for 98 days.”  Awesome.  “Watch out middle class – the tax bill is coming to you.”  And the business as indivdual thing – good.

6:44:  On to taxes.  Biden still doesn’t understand that lots of small businesses file as individuals, and that $1,000,000 for them has to include expenses and payrolls – it hardly makes them “rich.”

6:42:  Biden’s constant interrupting will please his base and will win the respect of the 5 year old with ADHD constituency.  But I have to think it’s not impressing anyone else.  It’s so transparently trying to hide what Ryan has to say on these issues.

6:42:  2033 is NOT that far away.  I know Biden won’t make it until then, but I will.  What’s the plan after that?  Ryan has one, Obama doesn’t, and this debate makes that clear.

6:39:  Great response from Ryan to Biden’s constant interupting – remind people of the last debate.  This is where Ryan really shines, and Biden has nothing but to shout “LALALALALALA!!!!” whenever math might be involved.  Just pathetic and obnoxious.

6:37:  “We will not privatize social security.”  Then you ensure its demise.  ANd the first really memorable quote – “hand in the piggy bank”.

6:36:  Ooooh – a Sarah Palin dig.  Lame.  And Joe, the only reason the AARP supported what you did is because they got a special deal to sell insurance under Obamacare.

6:35:  And Ryan talks about the shell games on the budget – good.  This so needs to be discussed more.  And I agree that social safety nets are desireable, which is why I agree with Paul Ryan that they need to be affordable.  As things stand now, I have zero faith any of the money I’ve ever put into the system will be there for me.

6:35:  “Where are the green jobs we were promised?”  “Let’s move on.”  I wanted to hear the answer to that.  Saved by the bell, Joe.  This is the problem with aggressive moderators.

6:33:  Not all government spending is bad.  But not all is good.  And the government invested in a wasted stimulus won’t find that it was wasteful?  Really?

6:30:  And the lie that the debt was all caused by Bush.  Rebuttal?

6:30:  Two guys down on America?  Because they don’t believe that Americans need the government to be their parents?  Boy…

6:29:  I love the % of income to charity jab.  “We want everyone to succeed.”  Biden:  “I also say what I mean.”  So does that mean the middle class really has been burried under his administration’s policies?

6:27:  I love he brought up the unemployment rate in Scranton, and that it was increasing.

6:25:  And Biden brings up the 47% comments, and follows it up with a lot of populist nonsense.  I’m so irritated that they don’t understand the difference between a public employee adding value to a community (cops, military folks) and people on the dole dragging the economy.  Foodstamp records!

6:24:  On to the economy:  Can you get unemployment under 6%?  After 4 years we already know the answer from the Dem side.

6:23:  “We can’t live with nuclear Iran, because they’ll arm everyone else.”  That’s right.  “This President doesn’t bluff.”  Wha?!?!  Please.

6:22:  “We will have the world behind us?”  Again – who?  What?  Are you kidding?  Also, a moderator beef – the choices are not “ignore Iran” and “total war,” as her questions suggest.

6:20:  Malraky again!  Drink!

6:20:  World united?  That’s nonsense.  China and Russia are more than happy to undermine our sanctions in Iran.

6:19:  The Wife:  “Why is Biden grinning and laughing like a clown?  I don’t think any of these things are funny.”

6:17:  The fear of Iran getting a nuke is “bluster”?  They don’t have one yet, so no big deal?  Holy crap.  You have to give Biden this – he tells the scary, scary truth about how unserious this administration is.

6:16:  “We could deal a blow to Iran.”  Duh.  That’s not the question.  Would we?  What would happen after?

6:15:  Russia and China are our allies?  Ryan – peace through strength!  Yes!!!

6:14:  “Administration was fighting us on sanctions, we passed them bipartisanly anyway.”  Awesome.  Talking about the terror attack in DC, again, Biden looks like he’s never heard of this before.  “The administration has no credibility on this issue.”  That’s EXACTLY the issue – no one in the Middle East believes a thing Obama says or threatens.

6:12:  “Should the US apologize?”  “Not for our values.”  And specifics on the incompetence on the Libya thing.  Good.

6:10:  “Malarky?”  Then he spouts it.  “Repaired alliances?”  Are you kidding?  Which ones?  Where?  When?  What nonsense.  And now he’s saying, “we changed our assessment as we got more facts,” but that’s BS too.  If what Biden is saying is true, he’s admitting the President is incompetent.  It’s not.

6:09:  Ryan had a great response to this nonsense that national security shouldn’t be a debatable issue in the election.

6:08:  “More than a tragedy”.  How is he reading my blog?!?  I love it.

6:06:  “Two weeks to acknowledge this was a terror attack.”  Excellent.  Biden looks like he’s hearing this info for the first time.  And hits Biden directly on the failure of an Afghan SOFA.

6:05:  Asked about Lybia, talks about bin Laden.  Pathetic, but when it’s all you got.  Ryan sees it, and grins before the pounce.

6:04:  Starting with Lybia, and pointing out that it was a terror attack on 9/11, and even pointing out that the WH story changed.  WOW.  And good.

Biden:  “It was a tragedy”.  No, it was an attack.  The word “tragedy” implies a passive, no-fault, act-of-God event.

6:01:  And we’re off!  Fisrt question – will I be able to spell “Raddatz” quickly, or will I just switch to “Martha”?  No disrespect intended if I do, but again the caffeine.  And the subsequent beer.

5:51:  Thank God for CSPAN.  I hate the post debate bloviating, and I feel like they always step on the beginning of the debate, including the audience instructions, format explanation, etc.

Speaking of format, I understand this one will be very similar to last week’s presidential debate.  Good.  How I despise the 90 second + 30 second talking point fest with the stupid little bells and buzzers.

Also, please forgive in advance any grammar and spelling errors – I’ve had a lot of caffeine today, and ya gotta keep up with these things!

5:48:  Fair warning – there may be toddler interruptions causing a tape delay…

5:43:  My prediction is that the expectations are so high that Ryan will crush Biden that, short of Biden sucking his thumb for 90 minutes, the media/Dem (but I repeat myself) narrative will be that Biden “won.”  I also predict that if Paul Ryan says that the sun rises in the east, MSNBC will call him a liar because it actually rises 20 degrees off of Due East this time of year.

5:32:  A couple of initial thoughts here.  It will be interesting to see how aggressive the moderator is in this debate.  Jon Ralston had an interesting – but I think quite incorrect – column on this issue, which took Lehrer to task for the last debate.  This isn’t partisan like a lot of the critisicm of Lehrer was, but I think it does assume far too much from any member of the press.  Ralston argues that moderators are needed when a candidate is not telling the truth or using “opaque numbers.”  The problem is that no one has the “true” answers.  Most “fact checks” are just arguments or interpretations, and often are embarrassingly wrong.  For example, Paul Ryan was called on the carpet for his convention speech, but it turns out the criticism was far more factually incorrect than anything Ryan said.  And then there’s the “welfare to work” arguments which again, rely on statutory interpretation rather than some black and white “truth”.  And I’m sorry, but I don’t trust any media figure or any moderator – even ones I like – to be the end all be all of statutory interpretation.  Indeed – who moderates the moderator if THEY’RE wrong?

And in any event, it is the debate opponent who is responsible for responding and rebutting.  The ONLY thing an active moderator can do is cover for a weak candidate, and impart their own spin, intentionally or not.  Moderation is NOT participation, and the two roles should not intrude upon one another.  Lincoln and Douglas didn’t use moderators, and neither do today’s high school debaters.  Presidential candidates can be expected to meet that standard as well.

We’ll get started in a few minutes – keep it here for the best, not-limited-to-140 instant punditry you can get without paying someone better!