First Principles

11:27: I need to go to bed.  But some closing thoughts.

In the primary, pundits struggled to find a pattern to an electorate which supported both Sandoval and Angle, and seemed similarly schizophrenic across the country.  Much ink was spilled over whether the GOP was moving right, or splitting altogether.  The agendas, while different, shared a common theme – they wanted to claim some endorsement and/or repudiation of certain political philosophies.

But most voters were looking not at philosophy, but perceived competence.  Most people aren’t political junkies, but find politics distasteful and left thankfully to others to handle.  They just want to know that things are being taken care of in Carson City or Washington so they can raise their families and try growing their businesses. They don’t want to have to ride herd on their elected officials if they don’t have to.

Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian’s battle diminished them both, and left people hungry for another option.  Angle’s many high-profile endorsements came rolling in just before the votes were cast, and people were willing to give her a shot.  It happened too late for a full vetting.  It was a leap of faith, faith that was not rewarded today.

Nevadans don’t like Reid, but he’s unquestionably a capable and skilled politician, and so they went with him tonight.  (Not that Reid was loved – if he really cares about Nevada, he’ll not over-read his own electoral results, either, and accept the punch in the face the entire country gave to his leadership tonight.)  Sharron failed to make that sale.

This is a critical lesson for all conservatives to take to heart.  If you think your philosophy will benefit the people, you must FIRST demonstrate credibility and competence with the voters.  Reagan had this.  Rand Paul and Ron Johnson established it.  Sharron and Christine O’Donnell, fairly or not, did not, and so they lost.

The good news is that nationally, the American people spoke loudly and clearly about how unimpressed they were with the competence of the Democratic led Government we currently have in power, which is represented by reckless policies they’ve put into place.  It is right that they did so.  But it’s nothing more than a conditional victory for liberty, and a fragile one.

All Republicans, and especially newly insurgent conservative ones, must hone their skills and work to always be competent, in fact and in image.  Competent means rolling back obviously unsustainable spending.  It means communicating with and as the most important part of that, listening to, their constituents.  Failure to do this means failure for them and failure for the country.

Time to gear up and get to work.  Good luck to us all.  We’ve got a long, tough road ahead, and we’re going to need all the luck we can get.

Update at 12:10: As I was heading to bed, here is Sharron’s concession speech.  Good.  I retract my earlier irritated rant based on prior bad acts.  The clip I heard of it was the best speech I’ve ever seen her give.  It will be interesting to see what her next move is.

11:25: Woo!  South Dakota’s house seat turns rightfully red.

10:53: Reid speaks.  He’s talking about this being the start of the next round, and he’s right.  He’s tough and determined.  The Republicans had better be ready, and not underestimate him.

Apparently Sharron has not yet called to concede.  Shameful – this has been called for hours.  Even Obama called Boehner when the inevitable became obvious.

Sharron, I beg you – if you have any love for the conservative movement in general and the TPM in particular, without whom you never would have made it past the primary, then you will exhibit more class than you did two years ago against an opponent who made a more persuasive case to voters than you did.  An election loss doesn’t end one’s ability to champion a cause, but a loss of respect definitely does.  And because your name is inextricably tied to the tea party and even the GOP now, any bad behavior (and yes, failing to call and concede is bad behavior) on your part will be attributed to the rest of us.

This is beyond the margin of fraud – if fraud won it for Harry Reid, the Governor’s race would have been much closer, and Titus would be ahead of Joe Heck right now.  And thank God for that, at least.  Demands for recounts and investigations are irresponsible at this point.  They would be in vain and a waste of mountains of your faithful supporters’ time and money, and worse, would damage a Nevada GOP brand already on life support.

We’re all disappointed with this outcome.  Don’t make it worse.

10:40: I’m disappointed that Ballot Questions 1 and 2 lost.  I think that like the federal Constitution, ours should provide for judicial independence from an electorate.  Speaking of, I have many friends in judicial races, some of them against each other – congrats and condolences.

On the other hand, the attempt to undermine our post-Kelo eminent domain protections also went down to defeat.  Good.

10:16: I take back what I said about Washington State – I was looking at the wrong check mark.  That would be a fantastic pickup.  But Rossi is still down by two.

10:13: Jon Ralston tweets his prediction that CD-3 will go back to the Republicans, with Joe Heck winning.  Silver linings in the Silver State!

10:07: “Write in” is winning in Alaska.  Good God.  Apparently that’s not going to be decided until all the absentees come in next Tuesday.

9:53: Very interesting local races around the state.  Our radical gerrymandering is certainly showing – most of these races are going 2-1 one way or the other.  The RGJ site is hard to decipher, but it looks like at least a few Republican pick ups in the Assembly.  Knock on wood…

9:47: I want to go to bed.  I’m sick and tired, both literally and figuratively.  But I’m dying to know what happens in Alaska.

9:41: Patti Murray wins in Washington.  Damn – I met Rossi several times while I was living in Washington, and he’s a sharp conservative who would have done a great job.  Although with Washington’s all-mail voting along with the fact they’re only required to be postmarked by election day could still tighten that up.  And Rossi is no stranger to recounts.  Sadly, neither are the Democrats who seem to find new ballots with every such recount…

9:29: Reid wins.  Boo, boo, boo.  Let the recriminations begin!  Let’s hope for that silver lining in CD-3.

9:25: Obama’s old seat picked up by a Republican.  That’s gotta hurt!  I love it.  Something tells me the President forgot that he’s supposed to have stopped smoking.

There’s a lot of talk now about how Obama will react to this.  I wonder.  Will he learn humility, or will he become more petulant at the peasants?

9:22: This crud I picked up is incredibly obnoxious.  Does whiskey cure colds?

9:11: Woo hoo!!!!  Fox just called it for Sandoval.

Downside, Karl Rove is already calling it for Reid.  It’s not looking good for Sharron Angle.  If this happens, the tea party movement (and the Tea Party Express in particular) is going to have a permanent wound.

That actually wouldn’t be a bad thing.  Skepticism of government is good, as is skepticism of any organization or person who wants to be in power in government.  I’m all for the TPM, but it’s suffered from plenty of its share of recklessness and hubris this election cycle.

Still, for a movement so young, its victories tonight have been nothing short of astounding.  Both the TPM and establishment of Republicans need to understand this, acknowledge it, and start buckling down and learning as much as they can from each other.

9:00: Tea Party Movement elects first black Republican in the deep south since Reconstruction.  What a bunch of racists, those tea partiers…  Update: Make that plural, in Florida.  I care less about their skin color than I care about having even more ammo to beat down that ignorant, offensive, and destructive stereotype.

8:46: Don’t cry Boehner.  Don’t you dare.  This night is only the choice of soldiers, now you need to gear up and get to battle.  This victory is important, but is nothing more than the minimum prerequisite to actually accomplishing something necessary.  Dare I say it, but man up.  If you actually meet your promised goals, or even come close, then you can ball your frickin’ eyes out all day long and I’ll hand you a hanky.  Until then, I want and NEED you in full focus on the daunting task at hand with your emotions in check.

8:41: John Boehner speaks about the repudiation of Washington.  Hey, buddy – you’re “Washington” too, and don’t forget it.  You’d damned well better deliver.

He’s talking about reducing spending and the size of government.  This clip will come back to haunt Republicans ever if you fail, sir.  DON’T SCREW THIS UP, or the repudiation you and this party will face in two years will make this look like a stubbed toe.

8:30: A solid GOP house and a Dem Senate might be – politically speaking – the best outcome that the Republicans could have hoped for.  They will be free in the filibusterless chamber to pass smart, concise, and popular reforms and/or repeals of Obama policies.  They won’t pass either the Senate or the White House, but they can build some tremendous credibility as a positive alternative in 2012.  They will have to sell them to the American people aggressively, and the GOP needs to hang together on those alternatives.

Lots of individual Republicans have won based on anger with the Democrats.  This House takeover is a first step only!  Now they have two years when they’re in the cat bird’s seat and under the spotlight, but still not really in power to prove that a Republican led government can stabilize and improve the lives of everyday individuals.  Jackassery and recklessness will destroy the GOP and set the cause of liberty back decades.

8:25: Man – ugly early numbers for Angle in Clark county.

8:20: If Reid pulls it out, I wonder if that will help other Republicans in tight races like CD-3.  People might have felt better about pulling the lever for him if they tempered his second chance with other GOP votes.  Today on my way home I saw a yard full of signs for Democrats and Brian Sandoval.  I hope that’s not the case – it would be a small silver lining.  But a silver lining nonetheless.

8:18: I’m not gonna lie – I’m liking the huge, nearly unbroken swath of red on the election map.

8:16: People are still waiting in line to vote in Sparks and in Elko, according to the RGJ.  FNC just read a statement from SoS Miller, saying no results could be released until ALL polls closed for good.  Good.

8:05: Huckabee described this as an earthquake that reverses the course of rivers.  That’s just dumb.  This is an historic event, no doubt about it, but it’s a fragile and conditional one, and not as big as some hoped for and projected.  The worst possible thing that can happen for the US is if Republicans mis-read these election results.

But then, I’ve never particularly cared for him.

8:00: Boxer and Brown win in California.  Unfortunate for Cali and the country, but potentially beneficial for Nevada.  I hope Governor (knock on wood) Sandoval makes good on his promise to aggressively court fleeing businesses from the Golden State.

An hour later, and still no NV data.  But apparently people who were in line at 7 here in Washoe are still in line, and then of course there is the power issues in Clark.  Slow is smooth, smooth is fast – let’s get it right the first time.  The LAST thing I want either way is a nasty, drawn out court battle.

7:57: Apparently a Facebook friend of mine just saw a Senate race ad.  NOOOOO!!!!!   One thing is absolutely certain that we all can agree with, and that’s that we will all be happy for the respite in political signs, ads, and calls.

7:42: I love that Russ Feingold is out on his ear, by what looks like a huge margin.  His style of unabashed, big government, control-over-your-life liberalism, coupled by his disdain for the First Amendment, made him an embarrassment to liberalism.  As a result, I hate the Packers slightly less tonight.  Plus, the winner has an incredibly handsome name.

7:30: That wound up being a cool interplay between two women who disagree with each other, made strong points, and then ended the conversation laughing.  Fox News, full of one sided propaganda and hate?  These “Faux News!” lefties like “skeptical sedric” in the comments below seem to be projecting…

7:22: Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin, together.  Palin looks a little up tight about it, and Ferraro much less so.  But then, she has less to lose.  Ferraro says it’s not “the tsunami that everyone was talking about,” which is true – but she’s wrong that it’s not a tsunami at all.  A 60 seat swing is nothing short of historic, and is a clear repudiation of the party in power.

Palin has no patience for this argument, which once again includes a Dem claiming Americans were just too stupid to know how helpful the Dems have really been.  Nor should she.  Democrats will bounce back big if they can humble themselves and let Republicans make mistakes, which they will.  If they continue to remain smug and cocky and believing that all they have is a communications problem instead of a fundamental policy problem, they’re in real trouble, and rightfully so.

7:21: Why is South Dakota At Large close?  C’mon, SD – give America a hat trick!

7:18: Still waiting for Nevada data.  Apparently a power outage in Vegas will delay things.  Do you know what doesn’t require power?  Paper ballots!

7:00: Polls should be officially closed in Nevada.  Now I’m getting nervous.  A lot of friends running for office tonight who I’m sure are pacing in their cages.  Good luck, everyone.

6:55: OK, I had to change back to Fox.  MSNBC simply isn’t serious, and I was losing brain cells.

6:52: On MSNBC, Sen. McCaskill (D-MO), who just watched her colleague trounced 2-1, explains smugly that the American people are just too stupid to know how much Democrats have actually helped them, and that the problem is a lack of “getting the message out.”  Riiiiiiiiiiggggggggght.  Insulting the voters while they’re speaking to you loudly and clearly is, I think, a poor strategy…

Noticeably absent from MSNBC is a single conservative pundit.

6:42: The Republicans on Fox are smug and giddy, too much so.  Don’t get cocky.  Meanwhile, the insipid gang at MSNBC are cackling over how the Tea Party has “snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” particularly in Delaware.  What they don’t understand is that “Republican wins at any cost no matter how they actually vote” does NOT equate to “victory”, at least not in any meaningful sense.

6:40: How in the hell does Barney Frank keep winning?  Ugh.

6:35: “Competence,” by the way, includes ACTUALLY reducing deficits, spending, and ultimately, the debt itself – not just talking about it.  It also includes staying humble and focused, with an ear to the ground for what Americans, more engaged than ever in the political process, are telling them.

6:30: Marco Rubio just echoed my feelings that this is NOT an embrace of the GOP.  “This is a second chance.”  That’s a very bold statement, and also exactly right – good for him.  Maybe he’s reading my blog!  Heh.

6:28: My wife just got home from voting.  She said it was busy, and she had to wait in line.  Good?  Bad?  I guess we’ll know in a bit.

6:14: There is a message being sent, but it’s muddled, and contains many warnings for Republicans.  If people actually had faith in the GOP, there would be many more pickups.  People are impatient and not in a trusting mood, and they will not tolerate incompetence in the next two years.

Those in power have been repudiated in each of the last 3 election cycles, regardless of power.  The firing trigger has gotten more sensitive, too, and Americans will be ready to exercise it in 2012.  I expect to see a LOT of primary challenges in 2 years.

The “competence” issue will apply to tea party type candidates, too, especially since many lack polish, and like it or not, people equate polish with competence.  Folks who aren’t great at public speaking, or at pulling important (and accurate) facts out of their back pocket on a moment’s notice will fail spectacularly, so those folks have a TON of homework to do.

6:12: Fox is calling the House for the GOP, with about a 60 seat pickup.  Nice.

6:08: Rand Paul is giving a great speech.  An emerging leader, who can actually effectively and intelligently articulate the conservative message in a way that also inspires the general electorate?  Let’s hope.

5:59: There will probably be a lot of embarrassed pollsters tomorrow.  I think they were getting a little out of control with their likely voter turnout models.   But I also think there will be a lot of variance geographically.

5:57: I came down with a nasty bug today – I may not make the Peppermill.

5:48: I love that Crist appears to not just have lost, but to have lost in a humiliating drubbing.  Good, you unprincipled clown.  Lisa Murkowski, you’re next.  I find these two the most loathsome of all politicians, nakedly switching their positions for a bag of beans.  Pathetic.  They’re even worse than jokers like Alan Grayson, who I’m also glad to see has been fired.  At least I can count on what guys like Obama and Grayson will do.

5:45: I’m not gonna lie – I love me some Megyn Kelly.  It’s a good thing I already have an incredibly good looking, smart, conservative lawyer right here at home.

5:40: Fox just called it for Manchin in West Virginia.  No chance now of GOP takeover of the Senate.  But it will be interesting to see if Manchin keeps his anti-Obama promises.  If he does, it will put a bi-partisan face on rolling back Obama policies, and that at the end of the day could be a very good thing.  Memo to Sharron Angle – this is where coalition building, even with people with whom you might otherwise disagree with, can advance your cause.  We’re counting on you.

On the other hand, if Manchin becomes just another Democrat cog in Obama’s machine, there will be a blowback against him which could cripple the Dems in WV.  That will be interesting to watch.

5:37: Man – this is hard with a baby and a cat both very interested in my keyboard.

5:34: Ordinarily, I’m a big half-a-loaf-is-better-than-none kind of guy.  But I’m still glad that O’Donnell beat Castle, who based on his votes for things like Cap and Trade, would have been perfectly OK putting a bi-partisan face on a radical shift in the relationship between government and citizen.  I could, of course, come to regret that, but we’ll see.  It will be interesting to see what comes of O’Donnell.

5:30: Now I’m home, and the liveblogging can begin in earnest!

4:11: There’s the RGJ reporting the story of Angle’s complaint against the Reid/Harrah’s collusion.  The story, of course, makes no mention of what the complaint was filed for!!! C’mon, guys.

4:04: Lots of exit polls coming in.  Drudge says the “blowout” is less than anticipated, which doesn’t surprise me, really.  The Dems still have a serious GOTV machine, and aren’t afraid to use it – did anyone think they’d meekly give up this election before election day?  Why would they?

Don’t get cocky, don’t get cocky, never ever ever get cocky.

Besides, expectations were starting to get a little ridiculous.  At this point, the Dems will spin anything less than a triple digit seat shift as proof that the GOP is still just a briefly reanimated corpse.  (Of course, that could still be true, if the GOP behaves unseriously in the next two years.)

3:49: Nevada GOP attorney David O’Mara has sent a formal complaint to the Secretary of State about the clearly criminal conduct from Reid’s campaign.  Angle’s own campaign attorney did the same to the feds.  Huge, timely, national news.  Is it on our local, Harry Reid endorsing newspaper’s website several hours into the scandal?

Nope.

1:17: Unions, overtly and illegally colluding with powerful Democrats, in an attempt to force people to the polls and vote a certain way?  With an implication that would be clear to any reasonable person that their union job is at stake if they don’t get out and vote Democrat?  I’m shocked – SHOCKED.  Again – Sharron Angle is the extremist?

The biggest and most dangerous problem with this sort of thing is that if Reid squeaks it out, at least half the state will have a hard time accepting the results are legitimate.  I would rather have six more years of Reid than lose the faith of the general public in a fair election process.  Reid needs to denounce this sort of thing immediately, if he wants to retain any legitimacy should he win.  But of course you know he won’t.  It’s almost as if he doesn’t care what Nevadans actually think of him, as long as he can eek out an electoral victory once every six years…

11:10: This morning I took my daughter with me and walked to the polling place.  I love voting on election day, and walking to the polling place.  It’s only a few blocks away, and Lord knows I can use the exercise.  That, and I like to use the walk to remind myself that there are people for whom the vote is far harder to obtain, and they walk miles to cast their ballot.

Up until I moved to Nevada, I never voted at an actual polling place.  I either voted absentee due to the fact that the Navy has very few bases in South Dakota, or voted by mail which was becoming the default option in Washington State.  The convenience of it is nice, but I much prefer the ritual and effort of actually showing up at the polls.  I also happen to think it makes my vote much more secure.

It wasn’t that crowded, which surprised me a little.  The traffic was coing in a steady stream, though.  It felt about the same as the primary, although I was a little later this morning – I think there’s generally a big rush right at 7 when they open.

The ladies working the polls cooed over my “little voter,” which sadly in some precincts in the country could just as easily be a real voter.  (Did I mention I don’t like no-questions-asked absentee ballots and a refusal to demand photo ID?)  She loves flags, and was constantly pointing and “ooh!”ing at the little American flags used to divide the check-in table.  The poll workers agreed with my proud assessment that I had a very patriotic little girl.

Fortunately, my machine wasn’t “prechecked for Reid” or anything else, and I saw nothing to arouse any suspicions.  I think Washoe County does a very good job with their election running in general, and this was as smooth as it always is.