"No thanks, I have enough supporters. I don't need all you Republicans. Or conservatives. Nope, don't need you Nevadans, either. Got any more Huffington Post bloggers for me, though?"
I feel like I’ve spent a lot of time lately on this blog complaining about the politics of subtraction practiced by the more (allegedly) rightward wing of the party. But it’s worth looking at the perils of subtracting from the other side of the equation, too.
A few of my more moderate Republican friends lament that Jon Huntsman hasn’t gained more traction, because only he, they argue, can pry all those in the center away from Obama. A few have even implied that he’s the only Republican they’d vote for over Obama. A few have somberly suggested he’s the only “adult in the room.”
But Huntsman doesn’t stand a chance, especially in Nevada, and it doesn’t have anything to do with where he sits on the political spectrum. Instead it’s a self-created and unsolvable math problem – Huntsman played the politics of subtraction, and he will lose on account of it.
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There is an argument to be made that Huntsman is in some ways more conservative than either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. As Governor of Utah, he signed a flat tax. His economic proposals have been deservedly lauded by the Wall Street Journal. And most impressive to me was his “thanks but no thanks” approach to No Child Left Behind – a gutsy (and crucial) embrace of Federalism and state sovereignty that no other candidate can claim.
But from the very beginning, Huntsman has positioned himself as the anti-Tea Partier. He takes pot shots at the more conservative wing of the party that are as condescending as they are unnecessary. He made his bones bashing the national GOP and being loved by every liberal blogger in the universe on account of it.
Here in Nevada he was one of the first to announce his “boycott” of our state if we didn’t take our caucuses and slink back into February. He wrote an op/ed attempting to justify the move, but which reads to any normal human being as some of the most grandiose boot licking since Waylon Smithers.
(Here’s a hint – if there is a good reason for New Hampshire to have such a disproportional role in selecting American Presidents, you wouldn’t have to resort to “well, they’ve always done it that way”. And here’s another hint – if you’re going to get sanctimonious about “playing politics,” do it in an opinion piece that’s NOT dedicated to making out with the derriere of the only state you can afford to actually campaign in, at the expense of the rest of the country you claim to want to be the President of.)
Huntsman is right that you need moderates to win in a general election. But you also need your base. Giving them the bird to curry the favor of left-wingers who aren’t going to vote for you in a million years isn’t a winning strategy.
It’s the politics of subtraction. And if for some reason Huntsman scored an upset and won the nomination, his loss to Obama in November would be so epic that Republicans would be yearning for the days of those master political strategists McCain and Dole. Say what you want about Obama – as his deficits have shown us, he definitely knows how to add.
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Yes, I know Gingrich also “boycotted” Nevada, except he still at least bothered to come to Vegas for our debate. He’s also shown an ability to actually, you know, gain some actual supporters in large numbers. And the first “official” volunteer I’ve met in this state has been from Newt’s campaign.
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It’s fine to be a hard core conservative or a radical centrist (I prefer the former, of course) as a candidate, as long as you can articulate why your philosophy will benefit that wide swath of people who don’t necessarily share it. But whittling away potential supporters in a quest to be the purest centrist that could ever occupy the Center is political suicide.
In a few more months, our own state races will be starting to heat up, and there are already several primaries between “conservative” and “moderate” Republicans. Both sides of that debate would do well to brush up on their math skills.
