First Principles

(Updated – see below.)

I don’t understand the problem with the current pirate standoff in the Gulf of Aden.  The situation is relatively simple.  The American merchant ship is safe, as is most of the crew.  The pirates have one hostage, but are themselves stranded in a lifeboat with no gas, and limited provisions.  Sitting right next to them is the USS Bainbridge, a brand new warship fully capable of engaging a pirate fleet if necessary.

The pirates have three options.  They can sit and starve to death while holding their hostage.  They can kill the hostage, and be immediately obliterated by Bainbridge.  Or they can surrender, where they will probably be extradited to some country who won’t actually do much.  At worst, they’d spend a few years in an American prison.

So why is this hard?

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Back in November I wrote about this issue, and wondered how the new President would deal with such a situation.  So far, he’s not impressed.

An AP story today, though, reflects some of the self imposed problems.

As the FBI joined the delicate negotiations, President Barack Obama, facing one of his first national security tests, declined comment when asked about the standoff.

C’mon, Mr. President.  This is when your country needs your leadership.  Real leadership.  Unlike the French, these pirates won’t be impressed by you commiserating about how “arrogant” and “derisive” we are.  Unlike the Saudis, they won’t be moved by your deep bow to a foreign king.  (Well, not in a way that we want them to be moved, anyway.)  They don’t care that an FBI negotiator feels their pain.

They will, however, respond to unyielding strength in the face of vicious, murdering criminality.  Is that really too much to ask that you display?  Even Clinton could manage it from time to time.

The incident epitomizes the limits of U.S. power in an age of increasing threat from violence-minded, faceless groups and individuals.

They aren’t faceless!  They have faces.  We can see them.  They’re right there in front of us.  Kill or capture them.  They’re criminals.  The only thing this incident epitomizes is a) that international outlaws think we can be bullied, and b) that right now they’re proving that theory correct.

“We have watched with alarm the increasing threat of piracy,” said Denis McDonough, a senior foreign policy adviser at the White House. “The administration has an intense interest in the security of navigation.”

Why have you only been watching?  What’s been your plan?  Have you been working on changing rules of engagement?  It’s not like this issue is a surprise – at least, it shouldn’t be.  This is the job of the Commander-in-Chief.  Piracy is explicitly addressed int he Constitution.

There is too much area to cover and too many commercial vessels to protect for full-time patrols or escorts. U.S. legal authority is limited, even in the case of American hostages and a cargo of donated American food.

No, no, no!!!!

Why is US legal authority limited?  We have jurisdiction over our own vessels.  We have the authority, both declared in the Constitution and ratified by international treaty, to go after pirates and other criminals on the high seas.  Nothing limits our legal authority, unless the piracy is happening within 12 miles of someone else’s shore.  Nothing, that is, except our own recalcitrance.  Why?

And the pirates, emboldened by fat ransoms, have little reason to fear being caught.

This might be the biggest problem.  We can give them a reason to fear being caught, or stopping the wrong ship.  These aren’t religious fanatics who think death is but a doorway to 72 virgins.  They’re thieves, selfish and greedy.  They will protect their own necks first.

They are bullies, using bullets instead of wedgies, to be sure, but the principles are the same.  And right now, the world community (and the US in particular) is acting like the whiny nerd who will inevitably give up the lunch money.  Can we not see this simple cost benefit analysis from the point of view of the pirates, and put our thumbs on the scales accordingly?

According to the Navy, it would take 61 ships to control the shipping route in the Gulf of Aden, which is just a fraction of the 1.1 million square miles where the pirates have operated. A U.S.-backed international anti-piracy coalition currently has 12 to 16 ships patrolling the region at any one time.

This is ridiculous.  You don’t need to have ships spaced out every ten miles, or escort every merchant ship in a convoy formation, any more than you need one police officer for every citizen in a city to have a low crime rate.

And it’s not like pirates can stay at sea indefinitely.  They have bases of operations.  And we can do a little something about that, too.

Besides – Thomas Jefferson beat back the Barbary Pirates with only 8 ships.  And none of them had radar.  Or missiles.  Or guns with 5 inch bores and a range measured in miles.  Or satellite linkups.  Or helicopters.  Or any of the other cool stuff a modern destroyer has at its disposal.

It’s not that we can’t deal with pirates.  It’s that we won’t.

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I think one of the reasons these self-imposed constraints exists is the penchant of many people on the left to create complication and nuance for their own sake.  It is a conceit of the self-proclaimed intellectual that he can see complication where the less brainy rube can only see in black and white.

But sometimes things really are black and white, so they must create nuance and complication where none exists in order to feed their own vanity.  It makes them feel smarter, which is all well and good for them.  But it also paralyzes them taking effective action.  And that can get a lot of people killed.

~~~

During the campaign, Joe Biden, contemplating an international crisis, said of Obama, “They’re going to find this guy’s got steel in his spine.”

So far, it’s more like nerf.

Get on it, Mr. President.  It’s time to read up on the early history of the country you now lead, and to solve this problem in the only way it can be solved.  Begging the international community to act isn’t going to cut it.  Negotiating with criminals who aren’t in any kind of negotiable position won’t either.

The future of the world’s commerce is literally counting on it.  Because if you don’t take meaningful action now, you will send an unmistakable signal to other would be pirates that an American flag flying from a mast is really an “open for looting” sign.  And since no other Navy can do what we do, if we won’t protect shipping lanes, no one will.  And guess what – the pirates aren’t the only ones watching.

Here’s hoping to still see that steel.

~~~

Update: So now the pirates are gathering reinforcements, bringing more hostages (which they’ve apparently stored up for just such an occasion) to the mix in order to strengthen their negotiation posture.

The frustrating thing is that the pirate ships and their bases are known to us – they’re being reported by the Associated Press for crying out loud!  The fact that we’ve taken no action to exterminate them before when doing so was within our power has now exacerbated the situation.  It’s also a reminder of what would have happened in Iraq had we allowed that effort to fail – failed states affect the US directly.

Do you get this Mr. President?  Are you capable of seeing this as more than just a single hostage situation?  Do you think if you let this stand, that people in the Middle East and in East Africa will see that we’re nice and leave us alone?  Can it be that you’re that dense?  Or do you honestly see this as an “annoyance” and a “distraction,” rather than the central part of your job that it is?

If they get away with this, look for a sharp increase in these kinds of attacks, along with the expense to all of our pocketbooks when it’s now far more expensive to ship things because of higher insurance rates and the new “tax” levies by these outlaws.

The one bright spot is that the Captain being held hostage tried to escape.  Good for him.  He’s a true American, taking his own fate in his own hands.  If Obama’s ineptitude gets this brave man killed or taken to Somalia to be trotted out as an additional hostage the next time this happens, well…  I’m afraid that’s only a micro-example of what could happen to the nation as a whole under the leadership of those who reject individual effort as a potent force in the world, and who don’t have the understanding of the world as it is (as opposed to what college know-it-all-hippies think or wish it was) to adequately deal with the problems we face.